Episode Details

Liftoff Mobile, Inc. (LFTO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 16:05 ET on Wednesday August 12, so Thursday August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 219.5M USD up 35.4 pct, loss per share 0.03 USD vs a 0.45 USD bar. Both lines BEAT; the stock fell 20.59 pct. Liftoff beat the earnings bar by 42 cents a share and revenue by 5.6 pct - then fell 20.59 pct. The beat was noise: that consensus was built for a company four weeks old, and no analyst could size the IPO stock-compensation charge. The guide was the news - Q3 revenue is guided flat at 219.5M USD after eleven straight increases. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE CASH IS REAL, THE GROWTH IS NOT) — base-case value ~$23.80 vs ~$21.61 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 23.80 USD vs the 21.61 USD close - about 10 pct above the tape but 33 pct BELOW the 35.69 USD Street consensus. An owner-earnings DCF at an 11.0 pct discount rate and 3.0 pct terminal growth, stock comp deducted as a real cost: bear 12.70, base 24.10, bull 39.68. - THE BEAT WAS NOISE: a 0.03 USD loss against a 0.45 USD consensus (Zacks had 0.52 USD) is a 42-cent gap measuring a modelling problem, not the business. Liftoff listed June 4 at 23.00 USD, five weeks into the quarter, so nobody could size the IPO share-award charge. - THE LOSS IS BELOW THE LINE: income FROM OPERATIONS was POSITIVE 77.4M USD, a 35.3 pct margin, vs zero a year earlier. Interest took 33.3M USD, debt extinguishment 7.4M USD, an earn-out mark 17.5M USD - yet pre-tax income was STILL positive at 19.2M USD. A 122 pct tax rate made the loss. - SIXTY PER CENT MARGIN, FORTY-NINE CENTS OF CASH: adjusted EBITDA was 132.3M USD, a 60.3 pct margin, up from 52.5 pct - but the reconciliation adds back 136.5M USD, 62 pct of revenue. First-half free cash flow of 124.2M USD on 252.4M USD of adjusted EBITDA is 49 cents on the dollar. - THE GUIDE IS THE NEWS: Q3 revenue guided 217-222M USD, a 219.5M USD midpoint against the 219.5M USD just delivered - flat, after five quarters averaging better than 6 pct. Adjusted EBITDA guided DOWN 4.8 pct to 126M USD, margin 60.3 to 57.4 pct - the first guided contraction. - GROWTH IS ONE REGION: US revenue rose 74 pct to 87.8M USD, now 40.0 pct of the company; Asia Pacific added 34 pct. But EMEA grew 2.5 pct - 55.0M to 56.4M USD - and is still 25.7 pct of revenue. Deceleration ladder: 35.4 pct now, 22.3 guided, 18.6 implied for Q4, about 14 for 2027. - THE BALANCE SHEET THE IPO HALF-FIXED: of 472.4M USD raised, 409.2M USD prepaid term-loan principal on June 29. Debt fell 1.855B to 1.437B USD, net debt to guided EBITDA 3.61x to 2.20x. What remains is floating to September 2032. EV 4,790M USD, 9.3x the 514M USD guide. - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET: 13 firms cover LFTO - 12 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell - averaging 35.69 USD, median 35.00, range 30-42. Twelve initiated June 29 as the quiet period expired. On August 13, as the stock fell 20.59 pct, UBS raised to 39, Wells Fargo to 34; only Cantor cut. What to watch: UP: Q3 at or above the 222M USD top of guidance; EMEA re-accelerating from 2.5 pct; the 60 pct adjusted EBITDA margin holding rather than the guided 57.4 pct. DOWN: Q3 at the midpoint or below; the top customer passing 15 pct of revenue. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.