Episode Details

StubHub Holdings (STUB) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:28pm ET Aug 12, after the close, so Aug 13 is the reaction): GMS $3.09B up 34%, revenue $573.1M up 33.2%, adjusted EBITDA $105.7M up 94%, diluted EPS to common $(0.00). The stock fell 10.1% to $7.68, printed $6.78 intraday, and closed the week at $8.08. StubHub reported record GMS up 34%, revenue up 33%, adjusted EBITDA up 94%, and raised full-year volume guidance. The stock fell 10.1%. The reason is in the guidance: volume went up $200M, profit guidance did not move at all, and the raised range implies second-half volume growth of 0.2% to 4.3%. THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A REAL MARKETPLACE AT A PRICE ITS OWN GUIDE DENIES) — base-case value ~$3.87 vs ~$8.08 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 4/5. Fair value about $3.87 vs the $8.08 close on Aug 14, roughly 52% lower. Bear $1.27, base $3.27, bull $9.30, weighted 30/50/20. Our BULL case is only 15% above the price. Street: 3 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, target $10.75 - but no rating action post-dates this print. A valuation call, not a solvency call. - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, 2026): GMS $3.09B, up 34% from $2.30B. Revenue $573.1M, up 33.2% against a $513.3M consensus - an 11.6% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $105.7M, up 94%, an 18% margin. Net income $14.6M vs a $53.8M loss. Diluted EPS to common is $(0.00): $14.6M of preferred dividends took the whole profit. - THE GUIDANCE RAISE, READ CLOSELY: full-year GMS went from $9.9-10.1B in May up to $10.1-10.3B in August. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $400-420M in May and is $400-420M in August - unchanged. Volume up $200M, profit up zero. At this quarter's take rate that $200M is worth about $37M of revenue. - WHAT THE RAISED GUIDE IMPLIES: first-half GMS is already banked at $5.31B. Subtract it and second-half GMS has to land between $4.79B and $4.99B against $4.78B in 2H 2025 - growth of 0.2% to 4.3%. This quarter grew 34%; Q1 2026 grew 6.8%. The 10-Q credits the 34% to the World Cup by name. - THE TAKE RATE WENT THE WRONG WAY: revenue was 18.55% of GMS this quarter against 18.71% a year ago, 19.05% across FY2025 and 20.40% across FY2024. Volume compounds while the fee take shrinks. The MD and A attributes growth to higher GMS per transaction - dearer tickets. FY2025 revenue fell 1.4%. - WHAT ADJUSTED EBITDA LEAVES OUT: $69.0M of stock compensation expensed plus $27.7M capitalised into software equals $96.7M - 92% of the $105.7M adjusted EBITDA. Annualised at the first-half rate that is $269M against a $410M guide. Enterprise value of $4.47B on that guide less stock comp is 31.7 times. - THE CASH AND THE STACK: of $1.69B of cash, $1.20B is money owed to sellers. TTM free cash flow of $597.6M contains $418.3M of float; ex-float it is about $179M. Ahead of a $3.09B market cap sit $930.9M of net debt and preferred carrying a $721.1M liquidation preference accruing about $60M a year. What to watch: UP: a take rate back above 19.5% on the November print, gross stock compensation under $120M a year, and open distribution or advertising finally showing up in the other-revenue line. DOWN: a fourth quarter implied at flat or negative volume once the World Cup rolls out of the comparison. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.