Episode Details

Boost Run Inc. (BRUN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 08:46 ET on Friday August 14, so August 14 is the reaction session). The stock gapped to 26.25 USD against a 22.55 USD prior close, ran to 26.90 USD (+19.3 pct), then fell to 21.93 USD and closed 22.93 USD - just +1.69 pct, giving back 91 pct of the gain on 8.3x normal volume. Boost Run's first earnings as a public company produced a 75.0M USD GAAP net loss and a 1.67 USD loss per diluted Class A share - and almost none of that is an operating event. 55.7M USD of it (74 pct) is a one-time non-cash deferred tax recognised when the operating LLC converted to a C-corporation at the de-SPAC closing. Strip it, plus stock compensation and debt extinguishment, and the adjusted net loss is 10.8M USD and EBITDA is POSITIVE. Revenue grew 270 pct, organically. The bears read this print wrong. We are still sellers, because the 1.9bn USD backlog implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex on the company's own ratio - against 120.2M USD of cash and 100.0M USD of equity. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE - REAL DEMAND, UNFUNDED PLAN) — base-case value ~$17.02 vs ~$22.93 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value 18.00 USD vs the 22.93 USD close on August 14 - about 21 pct BELOW the tape and 60 pct below the 45.00 USD Street consensus. Scenario-weighted on year-end ARR: bear 200M at 4.0x = 5.73 USD (25 pct), base 300M at 6.5x = 17.02 USD (50 pct), bull 400M at 9.0x = 32.22 USD (25 pct). - REVENUE: 31.1M USD, up 270 pct from 8.4M USD, and organic - clusters coming online, not an acquisition. Six-month revenue 42.1M USD vs 12.6M USD. NOTE: the data feeds carry 18.0M USD for this quarter and are 42 pct light; 42.1M less the 11.0M first quarter reproduces 31.1M exactly. - THE LOSS: GAAP net loss 75.0M USD, of which 55.7M USD (74 pct) is a ONE-TIME NON-CASH deferred tax under ASC 740-10-25-32, booked when the LLC became a C-corporation at the May 8 de-SPAC close. Adjusted net loss 10.8M USD. EBITDA POSITIVE 3.9M USD; adjusted EBITDA 12.3M USD (40 pct margin). - PER SHARE: GAAP diluted loss 1.67 USD per Class A share; adjusted 0.24 USD - both on 45,032,269 diluted weighted-average Class A shares. The feeds print 0.48 USD on TWO rows, a duplication defect, matching neither. Dual class: 47.3M Class A and 29.5M Class B, 76.8M total at June 30. - THE CASH FLOW ILLUSION: first-half operating cash flow was 114.2M USD, but 112.9M USD of it (99 pct) is an increase in CUSTOMER DEPOSITS - prepayments for compute not yet delivered. The company's own deck says it should not be run-rated. Underlying: 1.3M USD. - THE FUNDING GAP: the 1.9bn USD backlog at the company's own 1.2x-1.4x contracted-value-to-capex ratio implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex. Against 120.2M USD cash, 100.0M USD equity, 642.2M USD liabilities, 238.1M USD finance leases and a 0.87 current ratio. - BACKLOG AND ARR: total contract value 1.9bn USD as of July 31, over 1bn USD signed in the quarter. ARR tripled from 30M to 145M USD against a 400M USD year-end target - a further 2.8x in six months. Six data centres live, three more coming, 253MW of power. - GOVERNANCE FLAG: Boost Run did NOT file its 10-Q. It filed a Form 12b-25 late notice the same morning it reported - the SECOND consecutive quarter. Every figure here is from the unaudited 8-K earnings deck, not a filed financial statement. What to watch: UP: the late 10-Q lands clean with low customer concentration; year-end ARR tracks toward 400M USD; lease financing stays open. DOWN: a shelf or at-the-market equity programme; ARR growth below a 2.8x six-month pace; a customer-concentration disclosure showing the backlog leans on a few names. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advi