Episode Details

Celcuity (CELC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:15pm ET Aug 13, AFTER the close): no revenue line at all, R&D $31.1M (DOWN from $36.4M), SG&A $35.0M (up 361%), net loss $78.9M, GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate, adjusted loss $1.07. The stock closed +6.2% at $92.00 the next session. Celcuity spent $1.13 on selling and administration for every $1.00 of research this quarter - a year ago it was $0.21, and research actually shrank. It is the first quarter in company history that the commercial line is the biggest one. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, REAL DRUG, FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$81 vs ~$92.00 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value about $81 vs the $92.00 close on Aug 14 - roughly 12% below. Bear $38, base $79, bull $135, weighted 30/45/25. Cash plus risk-adjusted pipeline sum-of-the-parts, NOT a DCF: there is no revenue and no earnings. Probability of success: 85% approved label, 85% mutant sNDA, 35% first line, 12% prostate. The Street disagrees flatly - 12 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, consensus target $153.22. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): NO revenue line at all - Celcuity has never recorded product sales. Operating expense $66.1M vs $44.0M. R&D $31.1M, DOWN from $36.4M. SG&A $35.0M vs $7.6M, up 361%. Net loss $78.9M vs $45.3M. GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate; non-GAAP adjusted loss $1.07 - nine cents BETTER than that same estimate. - THE CROSSOVER - THE WHOLE EPISODE: SG&A is now $1.13 per $1.00 of R&D, against $0.21 twelve months ago, and it is now 53% of the entire cost base. Of the $27.4M SG&A increase the company attributes $14.5M to people, $10.8M to launch preparation and $2.1M to admin - with $23.4M of the $27.4M explicitly commercial. R&D fell on $7.0M less trial cost and $5.0M less in milestones. - THE 28-CENT GAP, DECOMPOSED: $0.21 of it is the NON-CASH $11.5M loss on extinguishing a term loan Celcuity prepaid with $137.0M of convertible-note proceeds. Non-cash items totalled $20.2M: stock compensation $6.9M, amortised debt issue costs $1.5M, investment accretion $0.3M, extinguishment $11.5M. Strip it and the gap to consensus is seven cents. - CASH, RUNWAY AND THE SHARE COUNT: $754.0M of cash and investments at Jun 30; operations consumed $55.4M in the quarter. $50.0M goes to Pfizer within 60 days of the Jul 14 approval, leaving $704.0M - 12.7 quarters at this burn, 10.1 at a launch-ramped $70M. The 10-Q cover shows 48.93M shares, but 6.15M pre-funded warrants sit in basic EPS: real market cap $5.07B, not the $4.49B on the feed. - THE ASSET: REVTORPYK (gedatolisib), licensed from Pfizer in 2021, was FDA-approved Jul 14, 2026 for HR+/HER2- PIK3CA wild-type advanced breast cancer and given a preferred NCCN Category 1 listing. Shipping starts late Q3 2026. The VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort hit its endpoint (hazard ratio 0.50, median PFS 11.1 vs 5.6 months); an sNDA follows in Q3. What to watch: UP: two quarters of REVTORPYK shipments tracking the Street's $392.4M 2027 revenue line, or an early VIKTORIA-2 readout. DOWN: an equity raise struck below $92, or a Q4 with nothing on the revenue line. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.