Episode Details

Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q2 2026 — Quarter ended June 30, reported before the open on August 13: revenue EUR 339.3M (+115%), product revenue EUR 314.9M (+105%), IFRS diluted EPS EUR 2.83 but non-IFRS EUR 0.90 against a EUR 1.80 bar. The stock fell 3.61% to $246.23. Three earnings numbers came out of one quarter: EUR 2.83 in the headlines, EUR 0.90 in the company's own reconciliation, EUR 1.80 in the Street's model. In between sits an FDA voucher sold back in May. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, EUR 158.1M OF THE PROFIT WAS A VOUCHER SALE) — base-case value ~$212.0 vs ~$246.23 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$212 against the $246.23 close on August 13, about 14% below - that is EUR 184 at EURUSD 1.15649. Wall Street is 23 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, average target $302.90, median $313, range $255-333; the most recent dateable action is Morgan Stanley maintaining Overweight on July 23, 2026. We use the Street's own revenue path through 2028 and will not underwrite a 34% operating margin here. Bull $295, bear $147. - THE QUARTER AS FILED, IN EUR: total revenue 339.285M (+115%); product revenue 314.910M (+105%) - YORVIPATH 252.114M, SKYTROFA 55.214M, YUVIWEL 7.582M; milestones 17.046M against nil last year. Gross profit 311.627M, margin 91.8%. R&D 75.888M, SG&A 173.341M. IFRS operating profit 220.465M; IFRS EPS basic 3.22, diluted 2.83. Non-IFRS operating profit 92.006M (27.1%); non-IFRS diluted EPS 0.90. US 265.471M, Europe 49.671M, rest 24.143M. - WHAT DROVE THE HEADLINE: other operating income of EUR 158.067M - net proceeds of selling the Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher awarded on the February 27 YUVIWEL approval, agreed May 6 for $187.5M and collected in Q2. That is 71.7% of IFRS operating profit and EUR 2.31 of pre-tax income per diluted share, and it was public fourteen weeks before the print. The company's own bridge from 2.83 to 0.90 totals EUR 2.13 a share. - THE BAR, NOT THE HEADLINE: on the company's own non-IFRS basis Ascendis delivered EUR 0.90 against a EUR 1.80 consensus - a 50% miss, which is why the shares fell 3.61%. Feeds carrying 3.29 vs 1.71 are wrong on both sides: 3.29 is in no filing, and 387.5M revenue is the filed EUR 339.285M converted to USD at 1.142. Ex-milestones revenue was EUR 322.2M against a bar near EUR 326M. ADSs were retired April 20, 2026 - these are ordinary shares. - BALANCE SHEET AND CASH: Q2 operating cash flow EUR 281.682M, about EUR 123.6M excluding the voucher, against EUR 7.342M consumed a year earlier. Cash EUR 812.260M from 616.041M. All $575M of 2.25% convertible notes converted May 6 into 3,635,813 shares, settling EUR 719.4M of liabilities. No bank or convertible debt: EUR 301.789M owed to Royalty Pharma plus EUR 148.285M of leases. Equity EUR 1,436.5M from minus 162.8M. No 2026 guidance was issued. What to watch: UP: selling and admin spend falling below 45% of revenue, from 51% this quarter. DOWN: the November 11 print missing the second half the Street needs - EUR 1,354M for 2026 against EUR 585.9M banked. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.