Episode Details

JBS NV (JBS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, reported after the close Aug 10): net sales $23,900M, up 13.8% and a record, roughly $855M past consensus; adjusted EPS $0.20 against a $0.31 bar; IFRS EPS -$0.10 on a $102.1M net loss. The stock fell 2.9% the next session to $13.02 on 2.4x average volume, then rose three straight days to $13.65. JBS booked the biggest quarter in its history - $23.9B of net sales, up 13.8% - and still reported a $102M net loss, with adjusted EPS of $0.20 against a $0.31 estimate. It is not a basis mismatch and not a currency artifact: the release is in US dollars and both EPS figures reconcile to the same 1,070.93M share count. Operating income was still positive $597.1M; finance costs and associates below that line did the damage. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ASSETS, BORROWED HEAVILY) — base-case value ~$17.31 vs ~$13.65 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value $17.31 vs the $13.65 close on Aug 14, about 27% upside. Bull $23.54, bear $9.80. We are BELOW the Street: 3 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, average target $18.50. Every rating predates the Aug 10 print - JP Morgan upgraded to Overweight Jul 28; Barclays held Overweight and cut to $20 on Jul 16; UBS cut to $17 on May 19. Four sessions on, no firm has revised. - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, reported AMC Aug 10): net sales $23,900M, up 13.8%, a record, about $855M past consensus. IFRS adjusted EBITDA $1,429M, down 18.5%, margin 6.0% vs 8.4%. Adjusted operating income $790M, down 33.5%. Net loss attributable $102.1M vs $528.1M profit. IFRS EPS -$0.10 vs $0.48. Adjusted EPS $0.20 vs $0.52 and a $0.31 estimate - a real 35% miss, adjusted against adjusted. - WHERE IT BROKE: operating income was still positive $597.1M. Net finance expense $695.6M vs $376.4M, and equity-accounted investees -$123.6M vs +$7.8M, give -$222.1M pre-tax exactly. Segments: Pilgrim's Pride $503M, -38.5%; Seara $380M, -2.9%; JBS Brazil $269M, UP 17.8% and a record; Australia $231M, -20.5%; USA Pork $117M, -54.0%; Beef North America -$78M, against -$233M a year ago. - BALANCE SHEET AND THE TWO OUTSIDE MARKS: leverage 3.10x from 2.27x, interest cover 5.00x from 7.74x, net debt $18,962M, LTM free cash flow $36.4M vs $927.5M - and a $1,039M dividend paid anyway. Against that: Indonesia's Danantara committed $2.5B for 25% of the Australia and New Zealand platform on Aug 7, implying $8-10B for one segment, and 82%-owned Pilgrim's Pride trades at 6.5x against the parent at 5.9x. What to watch: UP: Beef North America turning from -$78M EBITDA toward breakeven as Mexican live-cattle imports resume from Aug 24, or leverage falling back under 3.0x at the November print. DOWN: leverage through 3.5x with free cash flow still near zero, a further leg down in chicken pricing at Pilgrim's Pride, or the multiple de-rating toward 5.25x - which alone puts the shares near $9.80. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.