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Treasuries up, spreads down, and office improving
Description
Treasuries moved up, spreads continued to compress, and office financing costs kept improving; that's the Q2 2026 story in broad strokes, though the drama is in the details. In this episode of CRE Exchange, Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai sit down with Andrew Pabon, Altus Group's Director of Debt Advisory, to break down what the Q2 Debt Capital Markets Survey is showing. SOFR has effectively bottomed while five and ten-year Treasuries moved up 20 to 30 basis points, spread compression continued but fell short of fully offsetting those benchmark moves on fixed-rate products, and deal structuring conversations have fully repriced to a higher-for-longer world. The episode also covers a split signal in CMBS delinquency data, what the private credit stress story might mean for private CRE credit, and why office's improving financing picture comes with an important caveat.
Key moments
00:56 Market backdrop
03:08 Q2 survey shift
07:50 Rates and curve moves
11:24 Spread compression
15:26 Property type signals
19:02 Banks and lender mix
22:09 Post survey changes
23:15 Credit stress readthrough
26:15 Survey Invitation Wrap
Resources mentioned
Andrew Pabon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-pabon-15a6976/
Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/