Episode Details

BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (BBIO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $243.7M vs a $223.1M bar, up 120%. Attruby U.S. net product revenue $222.4M vs $71.5M, up 211% and up 23.2% sequentially. Royalty revenue $15.4M. Diluted loss per share $(0.78) vs $(0.60), an 18-cent miss. Net loss to common $152.2M. Cash $720.2M at June 30, ~$1,654M pro forma for the $933.9M preferred that closed July 1. The print was after the close on Aug 10; the Aug 11 reaction session opened $87.02, ran to $89.49 and closed $83.70. It closed $83.84 on Aug 12. BridgeBio's Attruby did $222.4 million in a single quarter against $71.5 million a year ago - growth of 211% - and total revenue of $243.7 million cleared a $223.1 million bar. And BridgeBio still lost $152.2 million, missing on EPS by 18 cents. Eight weeks after the quarter closed it sold $933.9 million of Series A Cumulative Convertible Participating Preferred to Sixth Street and to HealthCare Royalty, an affiliate of KKR - senior to the common, accruing 7.00% daily whether or not declared, with a 13% pre-tax IRR floor on redemption. This episode asks one question: at what Attruby run-rate does BridgeBio turn cash positive, and who is standing in front of the common when it does. THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, THE DRUG WORKS - BUT THE STACK GETS PAID BEFORE THE COMMON DOES) — base-case value ~$57.0 vs ~$83.84 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: REDUCE, 3/5. Fair value ~$57 vs the $83.84 Aug 12 close, 32% below. Free cash flow is negative, so this is a ten-year path-to-profitability model, not an owner-earnings DCF. Base $53.17 on $6.45B of 2035 revenue at a 30% FCF margin, 11.0% discount, 2.0% terminal. Bear $13.08. Bull $109.42. Weights 25/50/25. Street: 23 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, average ~$106. - THE REVENUE LINE: several data feeds published $222.4M as Q2 revenue. That is net product revenue only. The 8-K shows total revenues, net of $243.676M - product $222.440M, licence and services $5.804M, royalty $15.432M. The ~$223.1M bar was set on the total basis, so this was a ~9% beat. EPS $(0.78) vs $(0.60), an 18-cent miss. - WHAT THE LAUNCH COSTS: revenue rose $133.1M year on year; total operating cost rose $106.0M to $350.755M. SG&A $186.261M (+44%), R&D $149.448M (+34%), stock compensation $44.522M. Non-cash interest on deferred royalty obligations was $41.345M, over a quarter of the $152.2M net loss. Product gross margin 95.3%. - THE PREFERRED: 933,900 shares at $1,000 on July 1 - Sixth Street $800.0M, HealthCare Royalty $133.9M, plus $66.1M optional. 7.00% cumulative, accruing daily, cash or compounded. Converts at $137.79, 64% above the close. No redemption before year three, then the greater of 120% of face plus accrued, as-converted, or a 13% pre-tax IRR. - THE STACK: ahead of the common sit $2,505M of convertible notes, $879M of deferred royalty obligations and $934M of preferred, against $1,217M of total assets and a $2,515M stockholders' deficit. Once the stack is served Attruby needs ~$330M a quarter - a $1.32B run-rate, 48% above today. What to watch: UP: Attruby holding better than 15% sequential growth; BBP-418 approval at its November 27, 2026 PDUFA date and a clean launch; encaleret clearing May 8, 2027; the October 8 Commercial Day producing a checkable spending plan across three launches. DOWN: sequential Attruby growth below 10% as Amvuttra and tafamidis defend share; any slip at BBP-418 or oral infigratinib; SG&A growing faster than revenue into 2027; a second structured financing. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.