Episode Details

Everything in this election's just been turned on its head in 24 hours for three reasons – and it's not because of National.  

Firstly, yesterday Chris Hipkins was asked if he'd tell us how he would deal with the Opportunity Party, what the caveats would be.  

He said the Labour Party were going to listen to the voters on TOP – a very different thing to what he’s said previously. 

Secondly, TOP is looking more and more likely to get into Parliament and could hold the balance of power.  

Thirdly, Luxon, while wounded, will not face another coup now that the detractors couldn't organise themselves into a single ticket and topple the boss. 

In this case the old saying is tipped on its head: fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame you. 

There are no third chances for a coup pre-election. 

Which brings us to the state of play. This election is going to be fought, won and lost, on one issue: tax. 

For Hipkins to woo the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, they will need to move on tax.  

Chlöe Swarbrick, Qiulae Wong, and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer are loading the gun, cocking it, and wanting to fire on Kiwi households.  

So which taxes?  

I went on TOP's calculator this morning for the land tax.  

If you're a single divorced mum with a house from your settlement worth $2m, which is not much in Auckland or the deep south, you'll be paying an extra $456 a week.  

That includes $35k a year in land taxes. 

If you're a couple with kids living in Beachlands, you'll be paying an extra $30 a week in taxes, including $24k in property taxes. 

That's before you've factored in taxes on farmland, an effective inheritance tax, a capital gains tax on an extra house (say a retirement rental investment, or a kid you saved to buy your kids), an inheritance tax/gift tax when you die or pass on big assets.  

When you add to this the fact we don't know how these four left bloc parties will spend your money, and how effective they'll be at doing so, this gets messier than a botched Tory coup. 

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