Episode Details

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q2 2026 — Revenue $31.52M vs a $34.53M bar - a MISS. GAAP EPS minus $0.77 vs a minus $0.315 bar. The 8-K landed 4:38pm ET Monday Aug 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday Aug 11 is the reaction: $68.76 to $71.63, up 4.17%, then $74.28 - up 8.03% in two sessions on a double miss. On April 19 a New Glenn upper stage placed AST's BlueBird 7 satellite in an orbit too low to hold, and it was de-orbited. The write-off landed this quarter: the 10-Q says the loss net of $32.5M of insurance was approximately $125.9M - a $158.4M gross loss on one satellite and its launch. The balance-sheet line 'Satellites in orbit', covering every spacecraft AST has ever placed in service, is $235.4M. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A DOUBLE MISS, AND STILL ABOVE OUR OWN BULL CASE) — base-case value ~$28.0 vs ~$74.28 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $28.00 vs $74.28 - about 62% BELOW the price, 65% below the Street's $79.42 consensus and 45% below Scotiabank's $50.80, the lowest dated target. Bear $8, base $11, bull $70, weighted 30/45/25. - THE ANGLE: BB7 was de-orbited after New Glenn placed it too low. The 10-Q: the loss net of $32.5M insurance was approximately $125.9M - a $158.4M gross loss on one satellite and its launch, insurance covering 20.5 cents on the dollar. - THE COMPARISON: the balance-sheet line 'Satellites in orbit' - every spacecraft AST has placed in service - is $235.4M. One lost satellite was written off for 67% of the entire fleet, 5x the quarter's revenue and 20x its gross profit. - THE EPS BASIS: GAAP was minus $0.77 ($230.9M / 299,061,662 shares). Feeds reported minus $0.44 - that is ex-BB7. The same feed reported Q1 on GAAP at minus $0.66. The basis switched mid-year. A miss either way: 42% or 144% worse. - THE REVENUE MIX: products revenue was $24.43M of $31.52M - gateway equipment sold to mobile operators - at an 8.3% gross margin. Services, the US Government work, was $7.09M at 83.6%. Total gross profit was $7.95M. - THE GUIDANCE BRIDGE: FY2026 revenue guidance of $150-200M was reaffirmed. H1 actual was $46.26M, so H2 must deliver $103.7-153.7M - 2.2x to 3.3x the first half - weighted to Q4 and reliant on government awards. - THE CONSTELLATION: 13 spacecraft in orbit. The 10-Q says 25 are needed for limited service, about 45-60 for Continuous Service across the US, Europe and Japan, and about 90 for all markets. AST targets ~45 in early 2027. - THE FUNDING: cash $2,288.3M plus $434.6M restricted, ~$3.7B pro forma for July's $1,150M 1.625% convertible. But H1 operating cash flow was minus $145.2M and capex minus $859.2M - cash still FELL $57.1M. - THE REVERSE-DCF: $29.30B of enterprise value at a 12% required return needs $51.6B by 2031 - at 11x EBITDA, $4.7B of EBITDA and $9.4B of revenue, a 123% CAGR off a $175M guide. Roughly 260 million paying subscribers. What to watch: UP: revenue up from $1.16M a year ago; backlog to about $1.30B with over $125M of new US Government awards; six spacecraft launched inside 50 days to 13 in orbit; and a $1,150M convertible printed at 1.625%. DOWN: a double miss; products revenue carried an 8.3% gross margin; the 10-Q says the SpaceMobile Service has not launched and has generated no revenue; and FY guidance needs H2 to run 2.2-3.3x H1. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.