Episode Details

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Q2 2026 — Revenue $753.2M vs a $698.9M bar - a BEAT. GAAP EPS -$0.37 vs -$0.05. The 8-K landed 4:08pm ET Monday Aug 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday Aug 11 is the reaction: $31.77 to $30.51, down 3.97%. Revenue grew 38% to $753.2M and gross profit grew 15.5%. Every new dollar of revenue arrived carrying a 31% gross margin against a 76% base - and it is not a charge you can add back, because adjusted gross profit is identical to GAAP this quarter. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A MARGIN CALL, NOT A SOLVENCY CALL) — base-case value ~$17.0 vs ~$30.68 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $17.00 vs $30.68 - about 45% BELOW the price and 41% below the Street's $28.73 mean, but 36% ABOVE the $12.50 low target. Bear $4, base $14, bull $37, weighted 30/45/25. - THE ANGLE: revenue rose $208.4M year over year and gross profit rose only $64.6M. That is 31 cents of gross profit on every new dollar of revenue, against a business earning 76 cents on the old ones. - NOT A CHARGE: adjusted gross profit for Q2 is $480.8M - identical to GAAP. Zero add-backs; the $28.5M inventory write-down was Q1. The 64% gross margin, down from 76%, is the clean ongoing number. - THE PRINT: revenue $753.2M (+38%) beat the $698.9M bar by 7.8%. GAAP EPS -$0.37. But the company's own adjusted net loss is $20.8M = -$0.09 a share, so vs a -$0.05 bar the real miss is 4 cents. - THE COST SIDE: cost of revenue rose 112% on 38% revenue growth. Product and packaging costs +141%, shipping +56%, consultations +30%. Operating expenses added $188.5M against $64.6M of gross profit. - THE COMPANY'S OWN METRIC FELL: adjusted EBITDA $60.3M vs $82.2M, down 27% on revenue up 38%. Margin 8% vs 15%. The incremental adjusted EBITDA margin on a year of growth was MINUS 10.5%. - THE GUIDANCE: revenue raised to $3.1-3.3B (+$300M) but the adjusted EBITDA ceiling was CUT from $350M to $325M and the margin band fell from 10-12% to 9-10%. May excluded Eucalyptus; August includes it. - WHAT WORKED: subscribers +19% to 2.89M, revenue per subscriber +21% to $92/mo, marketing down to 34.8% of revenue from 40.0%, and Q3 guidance implies incremental adjusted EBITDA margin near 18%. - THE BALANCE SHEET: receivables jumped to $375.3M from $32.1M, of which $347.4M is manufacturer rebate receivable. On 1 July HIMS signed a $400M receivables-purchase facility with JPMorgan. FTC sued 29 July; $60M accrued. What to watch: UP: subscribers +19% to 2.89M; revenue per subscriber +21% to $92/mo; marketing down to 34.8% of revenue; Q3 guidance implies ~18% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin. DOWN: gross margin 64% vs 76%; adjusted EBITDA -27% on revenue +38%; equity down to $324.1M against $1.52B of goodwill and intangibles; a $60M FTC accrual. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.