Episode Details
Back to EpisodesAI's 7-Month Doubling Rule | Daily Essay
Description
METR sizes an AI's capability by the longest job it can finish, measured against how long a person would take, and through 2025 that length doubled roughly every seven months. A model counts as finishing when it comes out right half the time, so what you get is a coin flip you still have to check.
Featuring: Margaret Atwood
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Chapters:
(00:00) Atwood on waiting for perfection
(00:05) Choosing Multi's model off a public ranking
(00:18) METR measures how long AI jobs run
(00:40) A model that finishes half the time
(00:48) Launch now and swap in better models
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