Episode Details

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Q2 2026 — Revenue $2.575B, +112% y/y, vs a $2.56B bar. Adjusted operating income $128M, roughly DOUBLE the ~$66M consensus. Adjusted EPS -$1.03 vs -$1.20; GAAP -$1.14. Backlog $103.7B. The 8-K landed 4:10pm ET Aug 11, AFTER the close: CRWV settled after hours at $104.52, +15.7%. CoreWeave reported revenue of $2.575 billion, up 112%, and a revenue backlog of $103.7 billion - more than eight times what it will bill this year. The stock jumped 15.7% after hours and every headline led with the backlog. Almost nobody read the next sentence in the filing: 41% of it is recognised inside 24 months, 39% in months 25-48, the rest by month 78. Weighted, the average life of the entire $103.7 billion is 31.6 months. The machines are depreciated over six years; the buildings are leased for twelve. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A DURATION CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$68.0 vs ~$104.52 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $68.00 vs the $104.52 after-hours settle - 34.9% BELOW the price. Bull $200, base $68, bear $9, deliberately UNWEIGHTED because the distribution is not symmetric. Street consensus $140.97 from 38 analysts (median $150, low $36, high $303): we are 51.8% below. - THE ANGLE - FOUR CLOCKS: the 10-Q shows $103.7B of unsatisfied RPO - 41% recognised inside 24 months, 39% in months 25-48, 20% in months 49-78. Weighted at the midpoints that is a 31.6-month average life, against technology equipment depreciated over 6 years and leases averaging 12 years. - THE FILING THE DAY BEFORE: on Aug 10 CoreWeave closed a $2.6B facility (DDTL 5.5, SOFR+5.5%, matures Sep 2031) whose 'approximate five-year maturity extends beyond the average three-year length of underlying customer contracts' - lenders 'underwriting renewal risk'. Rated BB+ / Ba2. - THE MEGAWATT TEST: $33,823M of technology equipment over 1,500 MW of active power = $22.5M/MW, plus $4.0M/MW of fit-out = a $26.5M build. Revenue annualised over ~1,250 average active MW = $8.24M/MW-year and $5.43M of contribution. Six years of that returns 7.2%; CRWV's bonds cost 9.75%. - THE PRINT: revenue $2,575M vs $1,212M (+112%). Cost of revenue $879M. G&A $178M vs $174M - up $4M on a business that doubled. GAAP operating LOSS $49M vs +$19M. Interest expense, net, $640M vs $267M (+140%). Net loss $626M. GAAP EPS -$1.14; adjusted -$1.03 vs a -$1.20 LSEG bar. - THE BEAT WAS REAL: adjusted operating income $128M roughly DOUBLED the ~$66M consensus and cleared the top of its own $30-90M guide by $38M. Adjusted EBITDA $1,510M (59%). FY26 raised: revenue $12.4-13.2B, adjusted operating income $960M-1.15B, year-end power above 1.85 GW. - THE FUNDING: Q2 operating cash flow +$679M - but $790M of that is deferred revenue, so ex-prepayments it is slightly negative. Capex $6,422M, funded with $13,457M of debt and $997M of stock. Debt principal $35,551M at 7%-15%; $15.0B due by end-2028. FY26 capex guided $35-39B. - VALUATION: 551.5M shares (458.9M Class A + 92.7M Class B) at $104.52 = $57.6B equity, plus $35.1B debt and $16.3B leases, less $6.9B cash = $102.3B EV - 8.0x 2026 revenue and 97x adjusted operating income. Top three customers are 72% of revenue, down from ONE at 71% a year ago. What to watch: UP: adjusted operating income of $128M doubled consensus, G&A rose $4M on revenue that doubled, backlog is up 246% with $25B+ added in early Q3, and the top customer fell from 71% to 36%. DOWN: enterprise value is $102.3B for $12.8B of revenue, interest grew 140% vs revenue's 112%, and a megawatt returns 7.2% while CRWV's bonds cost 9.75%. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.