Episode Details

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Q2 2026 — Net sales $33.901M, up 89.7% y/y and 35.3% q/q, beating a $31.51M bar by 7.6%. Non-GAAP EPS -$0.07 vs -$0.257, a 19-cent beat. GAAP EPS -$0.32. The 8-K was accepted 7:31am ET Tue Aug 11 (BMO), so Tuesday IS the reaction: $63.92 to $65.29, up 2.14% - after an 8.7% intraday swing. Ambiq's June quarter was the best it has ever printed: net sales $33.901 million, up 89.7%, gross margin up 490 basis points, and the non-GAAP loss cut to seven cents against a 26-cent bar. Revenue rose 35.3% sequentially on operating expense up 6.8% - textbook operating leverage. Then the same press release guided September revenue up 7.7% at the midpoint and non-GAAP operating expense up 26.5%, which takes the non-GAAP operating loss from $3.385 million to about $7.35 million. The best quarter in company history came with a guide that un-prints it, and the stock closed up 2.1%. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, PRICE CALL, NOT A BUSINESS-QUALITY CALL) — base-case value ~$36.0 vs ~$65.29 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $36 vs the $65.29 close - about 45% below, level with the Street's lowest published target. H1 free cash flow -$26.6M, so we use a path-to-profitability grid, not a DCF. Bull $58 / base $26 / bear $11, weighted = $30; a 4-6x peer sales check gives $33-$43. Blended $36. - THE PRINT: net sales $33.901M vs $17.873M (+89.7%), +35.3% on Q1's $25.060M, beating a $31.51M bar by 7.6%. GAAP gross margin 45.0% vs 40.1% (+490bp); non-GAAP 47.2% vs 42.7%. GAAP operating loss $8.727M vs $8.797M - FLAT on 90% more revenue. - EPS BASIS PROVEN: -$7,115k / 21,742,929 shares = -$0.32 GAAP; non-GAAP -$1,772k = -$0.07. The -$0.257 bar is non-GAAP, so the beat is 19 cents like-for-like. GAAP Q1 -$0.50 + Q2 -$0.32 = filed H1 -$0.82. No basis switch. The -$18.96 some screens show is a PRE-LISTING figure on 449,785 weighted shares - a denominator, not a charge. - THE GUIDE - THE STORY: Q3 net sales $36.0-37.0M is +7.7% q/q at the midpoint, but non-GAAP opex goes $19.374M to $24.0-25.0M (+26.5%) for 'planned intellectual property investments', and gross margin is guided to a 47.0% midpoint, 20bp BELOW the 47.2% delivered. $36.5M at 47.0% less $24.5M opex = a -$7.35M operating loss vs -$3.385M. Margin -10.0% to -20.1%. - CONCENTRATION AND THE RECORD: three end customers were 28.9%, 24.4% and 24.2% of Q2 net sales - 78% of the quarter. The same three a year ago were 32.7%, 11.5% and 38.1%, so one account roughly quadrupled while the old largest grew ~20%. And FY2024 net sales were $76.067M against FY2025's $72.514M - a 4.7% DECLINE in the year Ambiq listed. - BALANCE SHEET AND DILUTION: cash $366.774M vs $140.275M, and NO debt. H1 operating outflow $20.678M includes $22.670M of receivable and inventory build - strip working capital and the burn is nearer $6M. Shares 18,316,928 to 24,184,536, +32.0% in seven months, via follow-ons on 26 Jan at $31.00 and 25 June at $78.00. - VALUATION AND STREET: 24,184,536 shares = $1.579B; less $366.8M cash, EV is $1.212B - 8.75x our ~$138.5M 2026 estimate. RUN BACKWARDS: at a 15% terminal FCF margin and 20x exit that EV needs $830M of 2031 revenue, a 43% CAGR for five years. Street: consensus $79, median $78, high $125 (Roth, 13 Jul), low $35 (Needham, 5 Mar). What to watch: UP: a patented subthreshold platform 15 years in the making, 300M+ devices shipped, net sales +89.7% with gross margin +490bp, a guide limited by SUPPLY not demand, and $366.8M of cash with no debt. DOWN: net sales FELL 4.7% in 2025, three end customers are 78% of the quarter, the guide more than doubles the operating loss, the share count is +32% in seven months, and the EV is 8.75x our 2026 sales. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.