Episode Details

Geopolitical simulations using AI agents sound like a powerful forecasting tool—until you see the bill. One run of Snowflake, an open-source platform from the CIA’s Technical Innovation Lab, can cost over $150 in API tokens. Because LLMs are probabilistic, you need to run the simulation dozens or hundreds of times for statistically valid results. In this episode, we break down exactly where the money goes: agent personality prompts, growing context windows, and combinatorial multiplication of calls. We also explore how switching models—like from Claude to DeepSeek—can slash costs by 99% while actually improving simulation quality through ensemble methods.