Episode Details

Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) Q2 2026 — Total revenue $6.136M, up 11.3% y/y - but PRODUCT revenue FELL 39.4% to $2.546M while professional service fees rose 174.5% to $3.590M. Non-GAAP EPS -$0.41 vs a -$0.43 bar, a 2-cent beat. The 8-K was accepted 4:10pm ET Wed Aug 5 (AMC), so Thu Aug 6 is the reaction: $19.61 to $25.26, UP 28.81% on 8.43M shares; $26.62 by Fri Aug 7. Aeva's headline read revenue up 11.3% and a two-cent beat, and the stock rose 28.81% the next day. Underneath it, product revenue - the part that actually ships - fell 39.4%, from $4.203 million to $2.546 million. All of the growth came from professional service fees, up 174.5%. A $1.856 billion company sold $2.5 million of product. THE CALL: SELL (4/5, PRICE CALL, NOT A BUSINESS-QUALITY CALL) — base-case value ~$12.50 vs ~$26.62 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 4/5, fair value $12.50 vs the $26.62 close - about 53% below, and below the Street's lowest target. Free cash flow was -$59.4M in six months, so we use a path-to-profitability grid, not an owner-earnings DCF. Bull $36 / base $9 / bear $3.50, weighted 35/45/20 = $12.48. - THE PRINT: total revenue $6.136M vs $5.511M (+11.3%), and DOWN 2.0% against Q1's $6.262M. Gross profit $2.189M, a 35.7% margin, vs -$2.720M. GAAP operating loss $34.560M vs $34.923M - flat. Non-GAAP operating loss $26.047M vs $25.114M - WORSE year on year. R&D +9.0%, G&A +28.2%. - EPS BASIS PROVEN: -$79.624M over 64,672,666 weighted shares is -$1.2312, the filing's -$1.23 GAAP. Add back SBC $8.513M and the $44.700M warrant fair-value change for -$26.411M, or -$0.41 non-GAAP. The -$0.43 bar is non-GAAP too, so the beat is like-for-like and it is 2 cents. Q1 -$0.41 plus Q2 -$0.41 = the reported H1 -$0.82. No basis switch. - THE MIX FLIP - THE STORY: product revenue FELL 39.4%, from $4.203M to $2.546M. Professional service revenue - engineering fees recognised over time - ROSE 174.5%, from $1.308M to $3.590M. The mix went from 76% product / 24% service to 41% / 59%. North America fell 27.4%; EMEA went $0.489M to $2.574M. - THE LOSS THAT DOUBLED IS THE RALLY: of the $79.624M GAAP net loss, $44.700M is a NON-CASH mark on 3,000,000 Sylebra Series A warrants struck at $5.00. The liability went from $29.711M to $73.961M because the STOCK ROSE. Strip it out and the loss barely moved from Q1. - THE LIQUIDITY HEADLINE: $302.9M of 'total available liquidity' is $177.9M of cash and securities plus a $125M Sylebra standby line - 7% preferred, a $12,000 liquidation preference per $10,000 share, senior to common - that EXPIRES 8 Nov 2026 and needs a new 50,000-unit OEM award to draw. Burn was $57.015M operating plus $2.410M capex in H1, about $29.7M a quarter, roughly six quarters of runway. - WHAT $26.62 BUYS: 69,705,758 shares on the 10-Q cover dated 30 July = $1.856B. Add 11.29M options/RSUs/PSUs, 6.30M convertible-note shares at $15.86 and 3.00M warrants at $5.00 for 90.29M fully diluted. EV = $1.856B less $177.9M cash plus $96.9M of converts = $1.775B, or 82.2x TTM revenue of $21.598M. - STREET: 6 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell. Consensus target $31.67 - but the MEDIAN is $27 and the stock is $26.62. Oppenheimer $42 (Aug 6, 2026), Morgan Stanley $27 (Aug 7, 2026), Canaccord Genuity $26 (Aug 6, 2026). The Street models 2027 revenue $70.9M and 2028 $208.2M, with first profitability in 2029. What to watch: UP: a differentiated FMCW lidar-on-chip platform, Daimler Truck, NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion, SICK and Bendix, gross margin positive at 35.7%, and a credible route into AI data-centre optics. DOWN: product revenue -39.4%, non-GAAP operating loss worse y/y, $125M of liquidity expires 8 Nov 2026, and the EV is 82x sales. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.