Episode Details

Ouster, Inc. (OUST) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026: revenue $54.626M, +55.9% y/y, beating a ~$51.5M bar by ~6%. GAAP gross margin 48.85%, the best ever. Net loss $18.114M ($0.27/sh). Adjusted EBITDA loss $4.453M. Reported AMC Aug 6; the stock closed -4.78% on Aug 7 after trading up 8.6% intraday. Ouster grew revenue 55.9% to $54.6M. Put the Stereolabs acquisition into both years, as its own 10-Q does, and it is 44.1%. Take out $1.9M of patent royalties that were $34,000 a year ago and it is 39.3%. Still excellent - and 17 points below the headline. THE CALL: AVOID (2/5, THE BUSINESS IS IMPROVING; THE PRICE IS THE BULL CASE) — base-case value ~$24.00 vs ~$43.40 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID 2/5, fair value $24 vs the $43.40 close (-45%), ~61% BELOW the $61.25 Street target. Ouster is FCF-negative, so we use a path-to-profitability model, not an owner-earnings DCF: 2026 revenue $219M compounding 20% for 9 years to $1.15B, FCF margin -6% next year to 18% terminal, discounted 11.5%. EV $1.32B (78% terminal) plus net cash over 72.11M shares = $21.90. Bull $43.67, bear $7.35, weighted $23.70. - THE PRINT: revenue $54.626M, +55.9% y/y and +12.5% q/q vs a ~$51.5M consensus. Product revenue $52.763M (+50.7%); royalties $1.863M vs $34,000 a year ago. GAAP gross profit $26.685M = 48.85% (42.90% in Q1, 45.20% a year ago); non-GAAP 53.5%. Operating loss $20.045M; net loss $18.114M, $0.27/sh. Adjusted EBITDA loss $4.453M. Q3 guide $54.5M-$57.5M. - THE EPS 'MISS' IS A BASIS MISMATCH, PROVEN NOT ASSUMED: screens showed -$0.26 vs a -$0.125 estimate. FY2025 GAAP quarters -0.42, -0.38, -0.37, +0.07 sum to -$1.10 vs a reported -$1.07, so the vendor ACTUAL is GAAP. But -$0.125 on 66.0M shares implies an $8.25M loss when stock comp ALONE was $11.385M. Actual GAAP, estimate not. We do not call it a miss. - THE GROWTH DECOMPOSITION: headline +55.9%. 10-Q Note 3's pro forma line puts Q2 2025 at $37.9M, not $35.049M, because Stereolabs closed Feb 4, 2026 - so like-for-like growth is +44.1%. Strip patent royalties from both sides and it is +39.3%. The Q3 guide midpoint of $56.0M is only +2.5% sequential and its $54.5M low end is BELOW the $54.626M just reported. - GROSS MARGIN, TESTED: we suspected the royalty did it and were mostly wrong. Holding royalties at Q1's $347,000 gives 47.4%, not 48.85% - so the royalty is ~146bp of the 595bp q/q gain. Product-only gross margin went 42.5% (Q1) to 47.0% (Q2) vs 45.2% a year ago: a real 450bp gain. The GAAP/non-GAAP gap is stock comp in COGS plus Stereolabs intangible amortisation. - BURN AND DILUTION: H1 operating cash flow -$20.039M vs -$6.188M a year earlier - burn TRIPLED while the adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $11.336M. With capex, H1 free cash flow was -$25.248M, 2.2x the adjusted EBITDA loss. $97.985M raised net on the ATM in H1. Shares outstanding 68,489,797 (Jun 30) to 72,112,333 (Jul 31) - 5.3% in 31 days. - BALANCE SHEET AND VALUATION: $262.5M cash and investments, ZERO debt, accumulated deficit $1.009B (a tax shield), book value $5.15/sh. At $43.40 on 72.11M shares, market cap $3.13B and EV ~$2.87B: 14.0x trailing revenue of $204.9M, 13.1x the annualised June run rate, 8.4x book. At the $61.25 target, EV is $4.15B = 20x sales. What to watch: UP: revenue +55.9% (a ~6% beat), gross margin 48.85% with product-only margin +450bp q/q, adjusted EBITDA loss cut to $4.453M, $262.5M cash and ZERO debt, a new cycle in Rev8. DOWN: 11 points of the growth rate is the Stereolabs deal and ~5 more a patent royalty; the Q3 guide midpoint is only +2.5% q/q with a low end BELOW Q2; H1 free cash flow -$25.2M; 5.3% of shares issued in one month. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.