Episode Details

Voyager Technologies, Inc. (VOYG) Q2 2026 — Record net sales $52.746M, up 15.5% y/y - but gross profit FELL 45.7% to $4.457M, an 8.4% margin vs 18.0%. Adjusted EPS -$0.70 vs a -$0.87806 bar. Guidance raised to $275-305M. The 8-K was accepted 4:17pm ET Mon Aug 3 (AMC), so Tue Aug 4 is the reaction: $28.01 to $33.49, UP 19.56%; $41.85 by Fri Aug 7. Voyager raised full-year guidance to $275-305 million and the stock rose 70% in seven sessions. The arithmetic nobody ran: first-half net sales were $87.992 million - about a third of the low end. The second half has to carry $187-217 million against an H2 2025 of $86.238 million: 117% to 152% growth, at a company whose first half grew 9.7%. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, PRICE CALL, NOT A BUSINESS-QUALITY CALL) — base-case value ~$29.00 vs ~$41.85 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $29 vs the $41.85 close - about 30% below, and below even the Street's lowest target. Free cash flow is negative, so we use a path-to-profitability scenario grid on exit multiples, not an owner-earnings DCF. Bull $60 / base $26 / bear $9, weighted 30/45/25 = $29.18. - THE PRINT: net sales $52.746M vs $45.674M (+15.5%). SG&A $43.672M vs $30.241M. R&D $7.336M vs $0.502M. Operating loss $51.408M vs $24.137M. Adjusted EBITDA -$37.500M vs -$9.066M. Free cash flow -$72.829M in Q2, -$139.623M in H1. - EPS BASIS PROVEN: -$46.490M over 58,521,968 weighted shares is -$0.7944, the filing's -$0.79 GAAP. Adding back SBC $3.762M, acquisition $2.008M, restructuring $0.966M, deferred tax -$2.179M and other $0.909M gives -$41.024M, or -$0.7010: the -$0.70 adjusted. The -$0.87806 bar is the same basis, so the 18-cent beat is real. Cross-check: Q1 -$0.61 plus Q2 -$0.70 equals the reported H1 -$1.31. - THE LINE NOBODY QUOTED: gross profit was $4.457M against $8.210M a year earlier. Revenue rose 15.5% and gross profit fell 45.7%. Gross margin went from 18.0% to 8.4%. Across the six months: $2.911M of gross profit on $87.992M of sales, a 3.3% margin against 17.2%. - THE GUIDANCE ARITHMETIC: the guide went $225-255M (Mar 9), $230-255M (May 4), $275-305M (Aug 3). H1 net sales were $87.992M, so H2 must deliver $187.0-217.0M against an H2 2025 of $86.238M - 117% to 152% growth, after an H1 that grew 9.7%. The next two quarters must average $93.5-108.5M against a record of $52.7M. - AND THE 10-Q, FILED THE NEXT MORNING: total backlog is $335.512M but only $189.008M is FUNDED; the other $146.504M is customer options not yet exercised. The filing expects 62.1% of funded backlog to convert in the rest of 2026 - $117.4M against a $187M requirement. A $70-100M gap must come from outside funded backlog. 87.7% of funded backlog is the U.S. government. - THE CAP TABLE SCREENS MISS: $460.0M of 0.75% converts due 2030 convert at $30.98 into 14,848,754 shares - deep in the money at $41.85, and excluded from diluted EPS as anti-dilutive in a loss year. Fully converted: 75.98M shares, $3.180B of equity, not the $2.535B on screens. Less $277M cash after Astrobotic, enterprise value is $2.903B: 10.0x guidance, 16.7x trailing sales. - STREET: 6 Buy, 0 Hold, 1 Sell. Consensus $54.40. Jefferies (Sheila Kahyaoglu) raised to $65 on Aug 9, 2026. Morgan Stanley (Kristine Liwag) cut to $37 on Aug 5, two days after the record print, keeping Underweight - the stock closed above it two days later. What to watch: UP: record bookings $113.0M at a 2.1x book-to-bill, backlog up 26.3% to $335.5M, $84.3M of Golden Dome awards, $585.5M of liquidity, three guidance raises with no miss. DOWN: the 10-Q funds only $117.4M of a $187M second half, gross margin is 8.4%, free cash flow was -$139.6M in six months. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.