Episode Details

BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $989.7M, +20%, vs $932M expected. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.20 vs a $0.945 bar - a 27% BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $0.23, and both bases reconcile ($0.54 + $0.23 = the $0.77 GAAP half; $0.76 + $1.20 = the $1.96 non-GAAP half). Non-GAAP income FELL 16% and GAAP net income fell from $241M to $45M. Guidance raised. The 8-K was accepted at 4:06pm ET on Thursday Aug 6, AFTER the close, so Friday Aug 7 IS the reaction session: $61.46 to $63.81, +3.82%. BioMarin grew revenue 20% and beat the earnings bar by 27% - and then filed a press release in which the revenue of the two drugs it had just paid $5.32 billion for was printed, fourteen separate times, as the spreadsheet error N/A. The 10-Q, filed eight minutes later, has the numbers the release does not. GALAFOLD contributed $105.7M of revenue growth and POMBILITI plus OPFOLDA $30.3M - $136.0M of the quarter's $164.3M of growth, 83% of it, from a business BioMarin did not own on April 1. Strip Amicus out and the company that existed in March grew 3.4%, not 20%. And management's own full-year EPS guidance of $4.90-$5.10 is five cents below the $4.95-$5.15 standalone plan it published in February - after spending $5.32 billion. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $74 vs THE $63.81 CLOSE - 16% OF UPSIDE, AND 17% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$74.0 vs ~$63.81 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $74 vs the $63.81 Aug 7 close = +16%. Owner earnings about $800M, $4.05 a share, so you pay 15.7x, not 12.8x. Honest bear $35, honest bull $135. Buy under $62.90. - Street: Buy (29 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell). Average target $89.33, median $97, high $124, low $50, all dated Aug 7. We are 17% below consensus. What to watch: UP: the 27% beat is real and like-for-like, and we proved the basis on both GAAP and non-GAAP first. Management's own pro forma table puts Amicus in BOTH years - $1,038.9M against $980.1M - so the combined company grew 6.0%, and Amicus alone grew 19.7% ($185.2M vs $154.7M). That is the falsification we ran against our own thesis and lost: BioMarin bought real growth. $220M of named synergies by 2028 would make our 9% growth assumption too low, VOXZOGO is guided to at least $1B, and the achondroplasia decision date is Feb 28, 2027. DOWN: 83% of the growth arrived by wire transfer on April 27, and the legacy business grew 3.4%. Debt went from $600M to $4.25B. Non-GAAP adds back $393M a year of acquired-intangible amortisation - which IS the purchase price - plus $76M of quarterly stock comp, 7.7% of revenue. Operating margin fell 39.9% to 36.4%, royalty revenue fell 57%, and guidance is a nickel below February's standalone plan. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.