Episode Details

U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) Q1 FY2027 — Fiscal Q1 2027 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,682.0M vs $1,630.5M, up 3.2%, against a $1,681.5M bar - in line. Net earnings available to common $122.9M vs $142.3M, down 13.6%. U-Haul reports TWO GAAP EPS figures under the two-class method: $0.58 on the Voting stock (UHAL) and $0.63 on the Series N Non-Voting stock (UHAL.B), against a $0.663 consensus that does not state its class. The 10-Q was accepted 4:02pm ET Wed Aug 5 and the 8-K at 4:07pm, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction: UHAL.B opened -4.5% at $61.98, traded to $61.72, and closed GREEN at $65.35. Friday it closed $66.02 - a 12-month closing high. Buried in U-Haul's own release is a table almost nobody reads. Over the twelve months to June 30, the owned self-storage portfolio grew from 69,560 thousand square feet to 74,742 thousand - 5.2 million square feet added. Average monthly square footage OCCUPIED went from 55,399 thousand to 55,937 - up 538 thousand. They built 5.2 million square feet and filled half a million of it. Average monthly units occupied actually FELL, 628,000 against 632,000, the first year-on-year decline; owned-portfolio occupancy is 72.9% against 78.1%. Chairman Joe Shoen said it himself: 'we are still completing new storage units faster than we are filling them.' And the bill has arrived - self-storage revenue grew $15.9M in the quarter while interest expense grew $15.6M. We tested the usual defence, that fleet accounting made it look worse than it is, and it FAILED: depreciation net of gains on disposals was $298.8M against $304.0M, $5.2M LOWER. Fleet accounting was a tailwind. The decline is real. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, AN IRREPLACEABLE BRAND BUILDING SELF-STORAGE FASTER THAN AMERICA WILL RENT IT, AT A MULTIPLE THAT HAS EXPANDED 20% WHILE EBITDA FELL) — base-case value ~$49.0 vs ~$66.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $49 vs the $66.02 Aug 7 close on UHAL.B (-26%). Bull $64, bear $32, buy under $42. Street: 2 Buy ratings, ONE target ever - Vertical Research $80, dated 3 Nov 2025. - STORAGE: +5.2M sq ft added, +0.5M filled. Occupied units 628k vs 632k. Occupancy 72.9% vs 78.1%. Revenue $250.2M, +6.8%. 12M sq ft in development. - THE BILL: storage revenue +$15.9M, interest expense +$15.6M. Net debt/EBITDA 4.0x to 4.4x. EV/EBITDA 12.4x vs 10.3x a year ago on EBITDA down 0.8%. What to watch: UP: occupied UNITS in the owned portfolio turning positive again while capacity keeps growing; the 12 million net rentable square feet in development leasing up at current rates (same-store revenue per foot is already +7.6%); real-estate capex falling from the $194.3M-a-quarter run rate; the $350M buyback, $101M of which is already spent. DOWN: occupancy sliding below 72%; net debt/adjusted EBITDA past 4.4x on flat EBITDA; operating expenses continuing to grow at 7%+ on 3% revenue. DATES: the 20th annual analyst and investor meeting on August 20, 2026; the fiscal Q2 print on November 4, 2026. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.