Episode Details

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (13 weeks ended July 5, 2026): record revenue $291.263M, +16.9% y/y, the midpoint of the company's own $280-300M guide and 0.3% under a $292.1M Street bar - in line, not a miss. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.45 vs a $0.4238 bar and ABOVE its own $0.40-0.44 guide; GAAP EPS $0.43. Adjusted EBITDA margin 32.2% vs a 28-31% guide. GAAP operating margin 29.4% vs 17.4%, +1,200bp, an 8th straight quarter of expansion. The results 8-K hit 4:32pm ET Tuesday Aug 5, AFTER the close, so Wednesday IS the reaction: CGNX opened $72.15, touched $72.35 and closed $67.38, DOWN 4.71% from Tuesday's $70.71. Thursday closed $66.89. Cognex issued its first full-year guide in years. Subtract the $559.7M first half and the $300-320M Q3 guide from the $1,130-1,150M full year and the implied fourth quarter is $270.3M - identical at BOTH ends, because both ranges are $20M wide. Against Q4 2025's $252.3M that is +7.1%, versus +16.9% this quarter, and the market sold it. But Cognex's fiscal year always ends December 31 while its quarters are 13-week blocks, so Q4 is the plug. Straight off the SEC period tags: Q1 2025 ran 89 days and Q1 2026 ran 95; Q2 and Q3 ran 91 days in both years; Q4 2025 ran 94 days and Q4 2026 runs 88. Six days moved out of Q4 and into Q1. Per SELLING DAY the year grew +16.4%, +16.9%, +12.0% and an implied +14.4%. The cliff everybody reacted to is six days of calendar. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE QUARTER WAS EXCELLENT, THE PRICE ALREADY KNEW) — base-case value ~$54.0 vs ~$66.89 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $54 vs the $66.89 Aug 7 close (-19%). DCF $46, exit-multiple $56, bull $62, buy under $55. Street: BUY, 1 strong buy / 14 buy / 14 hold / 2 sell, post-print targets avg $84.33. - THE PRINT: revenue $291.3M (+16.9%), the midpoint of its own guide; adjusted EPS $0.45 vs a $0.4238 bar and above its own $0.40-0.44 guide; adjusted EBITDA margin 32.2%; GAAP operating margin 29.4% vs 17.4%. - THE ANGLE: the new FY guide back-solves to a Q4 of $270.3M, +7.1%. That quarter runs 88 selling days against 94. Per selling day it grows 14.4%, and the 2026 quarters run +16.4%, +16.9%, +12.0%, +14.4%. What to watch: UP: 8 consecutive quarters of margin expansion, adjusted operating margin back to 30.7%, and adjusted EPS above the high end of its own guide twice running. Gross margin 70.6% GAAP / 71.5% adjusted, up 350bp, with tariff refunds explicitly NOT a material contributor. Greater China +47% (+42% cc) on consumer electronics and semiconductor. Zero debt against $755M of cash and investments - about $4.44 a share. Two AI vision platforms launched this year with NVIDIA and with Qualcomm, plus OneVision at general availability. A fresh $500M buyback authorised February 11, 2026. DOWN: 40.3x the company's own guided FY26 adjusted EPS of $1.66 and 31.0x guided EBITDA on a 2.7% cash yield; R&D down 2% in dollars; DSO out 13 days to 67.6; $105.2M of first-half buyback still left the share count higher; management averaged $42.08 and stopped buying at $49.49. DATES: Q3 2026 results expected late October 2026, against a $300-320M guide. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.