Episode Details

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $3.076M vs a $4.027M bar (a 23.6% MISS) and essentially flat on $3.095M a year ago. GAAP net loss $48.028M, $(0.13) per share on 370,840,115 weighted shares, vs a Street bar near $(0.10) - a miss on either basis. Loss from operations $(53.278)M, up 101%. Total operating expenses $54.982M, up 93% (R&D +122%). Adjusted EBITDA loss $37.073M, up 85%. First-half bookings $35.5M, up 1,120%; RPO $40.7M, up 668%. The 8-K was accepted 7:02am ET, BEFORE the open, so Thursday Aug 6 was the reaction session: $21.39 to $19.41, down 9.26% on 23,702,538 shares. Friday Aug 7 closed $20.76. D-Wave's first-half bookings rose 1,120% to $35.5M and contracted backlog (RPO) rose 668% to $40.7M. Both are real and both are verbatim from the 8-K. But D-Wave's own income statement has already run this experiment: first-half 2025 revenue was $18.1M because it included $13.7M from the company's FIRST sale of an annealing quantum system. First-half 2026 revenue was $5.9M - down 67%. Quarterly revenue reads $15.0M, $3.1M, $3.7M, $2.8M, $2.9M, $3.1M: a tooth, not a curve. And inside the new bookings is 'a $20 million system sale'. Meanwhile the $(0.55)-to-$(0.13) EPS 'improvement' is 100% a vanished $142.0M warrant remeasurement - strip it and operating losses DOUBLED to $53.3M while opex rose 93%. Non-GAAP opex of $39.1M a quarter on a 67.7% gross margin means D-Wave needs $231M of revenue just to break even: 18.6x its $12.4M trailing revenue. THE CALL: SELL (1/5, FAIR VALUE $5.25 vs THE $20.76 CLOSE - 74.7% BELOW THE PRICE AND 85% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$5.25 vs ~$20.76 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 1/5, fair value $5.25 vs the $20.76 Aug 7 close = 74.7% below. Bull $18.14, bear $1.00, buy under $4.50. 372,011,420 shares = $7.71B equity (the feed says $7.62B); EV $7.20B on $12.4M TTM revenue = 580x sales. Cash + investments $546.2M, loans $35.0M, burn $147M/yr. - Street: Strong Buy. 13 analysts, 13 buy / 0 hold / 0 sell, target $34.29 (median $35, range $22-$43), +65%. We are 85% below - and even our BULL case sits under the lowest target. What to watch: UP: the only dual-platform quantum company (annealing plus gate-model), a peer-reviewed Nature result on a high-fidelity two-qubit entangling gate that preserves the dual-rail error-correction advantage, and one of only two 'Leader' placings in the IDC MarketScape. Bookings $35.5M (+1,120%) and RPO $40.7M (+668%), with AT&T, Nasdaq Verafin, Shionogi and Unisys signing. QCaaS production work rose from 9.8% to 37.3% of QCaaS revenue. Commercial customers were 62.4% of Q2 revenue vs 45.1%. $546.2M of cash and proven access to equity. DOWN: revenue $3.076M was flat and missed by 23.6%. The 42-cent EPS improvement is entirely a vanished warrant mark. $20M of the $35.5M bookings is one machine - and the last machine was followed by a 67% revenue fall. Shares outstanding are up 485% (63.1M to 369.3M) in under four years. Operating cash burn doubled to $73.5M. And $20.74 requires ~115% compound revenue growth every year to 2032. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.