Episode Details
Back to EpisodesYou're Not Undisciplined. Your Habit Is Too Big. | Daily Essay
Description
Two men who won the Nobel Prize for pricing options helped found a fund that lost 4.6 billion dollars in four months. Ed Thorp ran the formula that names the right bet size and spent 19 years betting half of it, because you can count your odds at a blackjack table and only estimate them in a market. Eliud Kipchoge, an Okinawan dinner table and the race to the South Pole all run the same rule at different speeds.
Featuring: Eliud Kipchoge, Ed Thorp, John Kelly, Roald Amundsen, Robert Falcon Scott, Peter L. Bernstein
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Chapters:
(00:00) Bernstein on survival
(00:05) Long-Term Capital Management's collapse
(00:20) Ed Thorp's Kelly formula fund
(01:12) Thorp bets half of the formula's number
(01:35) Kipchoge trains easy most weeks
(01:58) Amundsen paces 15 miles a day to the pole
(02:09) Scott's race ends in a blizzard 11 miles short
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