Episode Details

Viasat, Inc. (VSAT) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027 (three months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,156.5M, DOWN 1.2%, a miss vs ~$1,199.7M. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 vs a $0.09 bar - an 8-cent BEAT. GAAP EPS $(0.38). Adjusted EBITDA $381.1M, DOWN 6.7%. Backlog a RECORD $4,217.7M, +18.9%. Net leverage 3.2x from 3.6x. FY2027 capex guided $950M-$1.0B against $992.8M spent last year - FLAT. The 8-K was accepted 4:24pm ET Tuesday Aug 4; the stock closed the Aug 5 reaction session down 5.9% at $81.03 and the week at $80.38. Viasat beat the non-GAAP bar by eight cents, printed a record backlog, and cut net leverage from 3.6x to 3.2x - and the stock fell 5.9% in the reaction session. It has still tripled in a year, from $25.55 to $80.38. Here is what the tape saw. The entire re-rating rests on a post-ViaSat-3 capex cliff, and management guided FY2027 capex at $950M-$1.0B against the $992.8M spent in FY2026. That is FLAT. Free cash flow is guided flat too, ~$180M ex-Ligado versus ~$177M underlying last year - a 1.6% yield on an $11.07B market cap. And guided capex is already only 1.04x the $935M depreciation run-rate, so there is nothing left to cut without shrinking the fleet. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $68 vs THE $80.38 CLOSE - THE DELEVERAGING IS REAL, THE CAPEX CLIFF IS NOT IN THE GUIDE) — base-case value ~$68.0 vs ~$80.38 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $68 vs the $80.38 Aug 7 close = 15.4% DOWNSIDE. Bull $112, bear $36. Buy under $58. EV $15.91B = 10.3x FY2027E adjusted EBITDA of $1.55B. Net debt $4.83B, net leverage 3.2x. FY2027E FCF $180M, a 1.6% yield. Consensus adjusted EPS $0.30 = 268x. - Street: Buy. S&P Global 11 analysts (6 strong buy / 3 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell), average target $97.04, median $101, LOW $49, HIGH $140 (Aug 6) - a 2.9x spread. Around the print: JPMorgan Buy $130, Needham $90 to $105, Morgan Stanley Hold $51. What to watch: UP: non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 vs a $0.09 bar, an 8-cent beat, with the GAAP $(0.38) loss bridged entirely by non-cash items; backlog a RECORD $4,217.7M, +18.9%, with Defense backlog +32% to a record $1,402M on a 1.6x book-to-bill; net debt down $729M to $4,834.7M and net leverage 3.2x from 3.6x; net interest down 22.3% to $66.9M; aviation revenue +10.8% with aircraft in service +10% to ~4,530; government satcom +10.4%; tactical networking +35.6%; and 100+ MHz of L- and S-band MSS spectrum behind the Equatys venture with Space42. DOWN: revenue $1,156.5M, -1.2% and a ~$43M miss; adjusted EBITDA $381.1M, -6.7%; Defense adjusted EBITDA -19.7%; fixed services and other -27.1%; maritime -7.0% with vessels down from ~13,900 to ~12,900; FY2027 capex guided $950M-$1.0B versus $992.8M spent last year, so the cliff is not in the guide; free cash flow guided ~$180M, a 1.6% yield; guided capex is only 1.04x the $935M depreciation run-rate; and ~$3.9B of debt falls due in 2029. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.