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MPLX LP (MPLX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX $1,775M, +5.0%; Crude Oil and Products Logistics $1,161M +2.0%, Natural Gas and NGL Services $614M +11.2%; DCF $1,450M +2.1% (H1 $2,858M, DOWN 1.7%); net income attributable $1,077M; EPS $1.06 vs a $1.06 bar, in line; operating revenue $3,082M vs a $3,142M bar. Distribution $1.0765/unit, +12.5%, coverage 1.3x. Adjusted FCF $668M against $1,092M of LP distributions = MINUS $424M. The 8-K was accepted 6:49am ET Tuesday Aug 4, before the open, so Aug 4 is the reaction session: +2.72% to $60.51, a 12-month closing high. Last close Aug 7: $58.85. MPLX reported Q2 2026 before the open on Tuesday August 4 and the headline was good: adjusted EBITDA $1,775M (+5.0%), DCF $1,450M (+2.1%), the distribution raised 12.5% for the second year running, and the units closed at a 12-month high of $60.51. Fifteen pages into MPLX's own release is a line nobody quoted: adjusted free cash flow AFTER distributions of MINUS $424M, against PLUS $154M a year ago (H1: -$968M vs -$183M). MPLX funded that gap out of its cash pile, which fell from $2,137M to $1,031M while face debt stayed flat at $26.0B. Two more findings the coverage missed: distribution coverage of 1.3x (from 1.5x) is now management's stated TARGET for 2026, 2027 and beyond, and 73% of the quarter's EBITDA growth came from Natural Gas and NGL, which is only 35% of the base, while total pipeline throughput FELL 4%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $60 vs $58.85 IS ONLY 2% - THE 7.3% YIELD IS THE RETURN, AND FREE CASH FLOW AFTER DISTRIBUTIONS WENT TO MINUS $424M) — base-case value ~$60.0 vs ~$58.85 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $60 vs the $58.85 Aug 7 close (+2.0%), plus a 7.32% yield = ~9.3% total return. Bull $70, bear $50. We would buy under $52 (an 8.3% yield). EV $84.65B = 12.0x LTM adjusted EBITDA of $7.07B; 10.3x DCF per unit of $5.72. - Street: Buy, 28 analysts (19 buy / 9 hold / 0 sell), avg target $62 (high $63, low $59); S&P Global has $60.92 off 15 analysts. Barclays raised to $63 from $59; Wells Fargo maintained Overweight Aug 5; Wolfe Research CUT to Peer Perform on July 29, a week before the print. What to watch: UP: adjusted EBITDA attributable $1,775M, +5.0%, in the guided mid-single-digit range; Natural Gas and NGL Services +11.2% to $614M with operated gathering +5% (+13% ex-divestitures) and NGLs fractionated +7% to 680 mbpd; the distribution was raised 12.5% to $1.0765 and management guided 12.5% again for 2026 AND 2027; coverage still 1.3x; 2026 growth capital raised $500M to $2.9B at underwritten mid-teens returns with five projects entering service in six months (Harmon Creek III, Bay Runner, Titan, BANGL, Blackcomb); $5B of liquidity ($1.0B cash, $2.5B revolver, $1.5B MPC intercompany). DOWN: adjusted free cash flow after distributions was MINUS $424M in the quarter and MINUS $968M for the half, against +$154M and -$183M a year ago; cash halved from $2,137M to $1,031M in six months while face debt stayed flat, so the gap came out of the cash pile; leverage went from 3.1x to 3.7x against a stated ~4.0x comfort as $4.5B of debt funded Northwind and BANGL; H1 DCF fell 1.7% while adjusted EBITDA rose 1.7%, because adjusted net interest went from $444M to $565M; total pipeline throughput fell 4% (crude pipelines -5%) with Logistics growing only on tariff rates and butane blending; and the units trade at 12.0x LTM EBITDA, 2.7% below a 12-month high set on the print itself. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.