Episode Details

Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30, in USD under US GAAP): revenue $3,494M, +8.6% (organic +6.7%) vs $3,366M consensus - a $128M BEAT. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.88 vs a $0.95 bar - a 7.8% MISS. GAAP diluted EPS $0.86, +14.7%. Adjusted EBITDA $986M, +5.8%, margin 28.2%, -80bps. FY26 revenue guidance RAISED to $12.5-12.7B; FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance CUT to $3.1-3.2B from $3.25-3.34B. The 8-K was accepted 8:51pm ET Thursday Aug 6, after the close, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction session: -8.94% to $46.64 on 9.5M shares - the lowest close in the company's life and one cent below its Aug 7, 2025 close. Amrize - the North American building-materials business Holcim spun off in June 2025 - reported Q2 2026 after Thursday's close and beat on revenue by $128M, then raised full-year revenue guidance. The stock fell 8.94% on Friday to $46.64, the lowest close in its 14-month life and one cent below where it closed exactly a year earlier. Three findings the coverage missed. One: of the $276M of revenue growth, $200M was VOLUME and only $16M was PRICE, with cement pricing at -0.2% in constant currency while diesel and freight inflated. Two: revenue guidance went UP $195M and Adjusted EBITDA guidance came DOWN $145M in the same paragraph, deleting roughly half the year's guided growth. Three: the Item 2.02 revision of prior period financial statements made FY2025 net income $9M BETTER, not worse. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $50 vs $46.64 IS 7% - THE SELL-OFF TOOK AMRIZE FROM EXPENSIVE TO ROUGHLY FAIR, AND NO FURTHER) — base-case value ~$50.0 vs ~$46.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $50 vs the $46.64 Aug 7 close = 7% upside. Bull $64, bear $36. Buy under $42. EV $31.10B = 10.3x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $3.02B and 9.9x the new FY26 guide of $3.15B; net debt 1.7x; FCF yield 5.8%. - Street: Buy, 8 analysts (5 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell), avg target $62.83 (high $70, low $48). After the print: Citi $66 from $76, Morgan Stanley $65 from $69. Truist cut to Hold on July 7, BEFORE the print. What to watch: UP: revenue $3,494M, +8.6%, a $128M beat, with cement volumes +5.0% and aggregates volumes +6.5% into data-centre, energy and infrastructure demand; aggregates pricing +4.0% constant currency, freight adjusted; cement pricing +2.1% SEQUENTIALLY as April increases landed; adjusted EPS sits just 2c above GAAP EPS (add-backs are 1.8% of Adjusted EBITDA); $502M returned in the quarter; leverage still investment grade at 1.7x; ASPIRE on track for $80M of 2026 savings and $250M+ through 2028. DOWN: adjusted EPS $0.88 missed a $0.95 bar by 7.8%; Adjusted EBITDA margin -80bps to 28.2%; cement pricing -0.2% year on year in a cost-inflation quarter; Building Envelope segment EBITDA -5.2% with margin -350bps (after -500bps in Q1); FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance CUT $145M to $3.1-3.2B, implying a 25.0% FY margin vs 25.5% in 2025; net debt $3,347M to $5,275M in six months; and an Item 2.02 revision of prior periods for $78M of understated extended-warranty deferred revenue at Duro-Last and Malarkey. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.