Episode Details

US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) Q2 2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended June 27): net sales $10,532M, +4.5% vs a $10,463M consensus. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.44 vs a $1.36 bar - an 8-cent BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $1.24, +29.2%. Adjusted EBITDA a RECORD $604M, +10.2%, margin +29bps to 5.7%. Independent restaurant cases +5.1%, a fourth straight quarter of acceleration. FY2026 guidance REAFFIRMED. The 8-K was accepted 6:47am ET Thursday Aug 6, before the open: +6.4% to $106.97, then $108.88 Friday, an all-time closing high. US Foods beat the adjusted earnings bar by eight cents and the stock ran to the highest close in its history. Here is the arithmetic nobody ran. Adjusted net income was $317M. Over this year's 220.5M diluted shares that is the reported $1.44. Over LAST year's 233.0M shares it is $1.36 - the consensus bar, to the cent. Every cent of the beat came out of the denominator. The growth is real, though: adjusted net income grew 14.4% on its own and independent restaurant case volume has accelerated four straight quarters, from 3.3% in FY2025 to 5.1% now. The compounding is earned. The surprise was bought. Meanwhile Sysco has agreed to pay $29.1B of enterprise value for Jetro Restaurant Depot - almost exactly what the market is paying for all of US Foods. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, FAIR VALUE $88 vs $108.88 IS 19% OF DOWNSIDE - AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$88.0 vs ~$108.88 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $88 vs the $108.88 Aug 7 close = 19% DOWNSIDE. Bull $103, bear $51. Buy under $80. EV $29.19B = 14.5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.01B and 13.6x the FY26 guide of $2.14B; net leverage 2.6x; FCF yield 4.3%. - Street: Buy, 25 analysts (18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell), avg target $111.44 (high $127, low $88) = just +2.4%. After the print: TD Cowen $119 from $116, BTIG $120 from $105, both Aug 7. What to watch: UP: net sales $10,532M, +4.5%, ahead of a $10,463M bar; adjusted diluted EPS $1.44 vs $1.36; Adjusted EBITDA a record $604M, +10.2%, margin +29bps to 5.7%; net income $275M, +22.8%; gross profit +8.0% on 4.5% sales growth; independent restaurant cases +5.1%, accelerating for a fourth straight quarter; net leverage down to 2.6x; 4.4M shares bought at ~$85, 21% below Friday; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed at +4-6% sales, +9-13% Adjusted EBITDA, +18-24% adjusted EPS. DOWN: hold the share count at last year's 233.0M and adjusted EPS is $1.36, exactly in line - the whole beat is the 12.5M retired shares; total cases grew only 1.9% and chain fell 1.5%; a $19M LIFO swing is 13% of gross-profit growth; operating cash flow FLAT at $725M in the half; ~$200M a year of fleet goes on finance leases, never touching the cash flow statement; an all-time high on a 5.1% EBITDA margin with $5.2B of net debt; and Sysco plus Jetro puts 166 cash-and-carry stores in front of independents. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.