Episode Details

Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): revenue $1.21M - the first in company history - vs an estimate near $84K, but the 10-Q splits it into $800K of engineering and consulting, $168K of machining and $242K of other, all of it arriving with two engineering firms Oklo BOUGHT in June for $33.4M of cash. Cost of sales $721K, so gross profit was $489K. EPS -$0.28 vs a -$0.16 bar. Opex $74.4M, +165.6%. The 10-Q hit EDGAR at 7:19am ET Friday, so Aug 7 is the reaction session: $42.19 to $48.42, UP 14.77%. Oklo's first-ever revenue is not a reactor result. The 10-Q disaggregates the $1,210K three ways - $800K of engineering and consulting services, $168K of manufacturing and fabrication, $242K of other - and the MD&A says both new subsidiaries 'continue to provide engineering services to an established group of customers.' Oklo acquired ARMEC on June 4 for $20,462K and Creative Engineers on June 15 for $12,918K: $33.4M of cash, four weeks before the quarter closed. Cost of sales was $721K, so gross profit was $489 THOUSAND - against $1,158.9M of market value added on Friday. Meanwhile the Groves reactor reached first criticality on August 5 and the stock FELL the day it was announced. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A REAL REACTOR AND A REAL BALANCE SHEET, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR SEVEN GIGAWATTS THAT DO NOT EXIST) — base-case value ~$23.0 vs ~$48.42 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $23 vs the $48.42 Aug 7 close (-52.5%). Bull $36, bear $11, look again under $20. Street: Buy, 13 analysts, 10 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell, avg target $82 (+69.4%) - but every target set in the last 60 days is $55-$76. - Revenue $1.21M vs an ~$84K bar - $800K engineering, $168K machining, $242K other, all acquired for $33.4M in June. Cost of sales $721K; gross profit $489K. EPS -$0.28 vs -$0.16. Opex $74.4M (+165.6%). - Market cap $9.01B on 186.0M shares; less $3.01B of cash = $6.00B enterprise value, which our model says already pays for 7.0 GW built and contracted. Oklo has 75 MWe under construction. What to watch: UP: the Groves Isotope Test Reactor went critical at 9:19pm ET on Aug 5 after 229 days of substantial construction - the fifth reactor critical under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program and the first on private land; DOE approved the Aurora-INL Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis on June 11 (two of five steps) with commercial operation targeted 2028; a 1.2 GWe Meta campus in Pike County with a prepayment agreement; a Centrus HALEU letter of intent for up to five powerhouses; $3.01B of cash and marketable securities against $84.3M of total liabilities. DOWN: zero megawatts in commercial operation; the 14 GW pipeline is described in the filing itself as NON-BINDING letters of intent; net loss widened $24.7M to $48.5M; 2026 operating cash-use guidance raised to $120-150M and capex to $400-500M; $1.85B raised at the market in six months at about $95.50 (Q1) and $62.55 (Q2) a share; share count 147.6M to 186.0M, +26.0% in twelve months. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.