Episode Details

Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): revenue $38.639M vs a $30.2M bar - a 28% BEAT; GAAP EPS -$0.25 vs -$0.234 - a narrow miss; GAAP net loss $245.4M, but adjusted EBITDA loss $197.0M vs $131.6M a year ago. R&D $194.7M +42.7%; SG&A $76.6M +143%; loss from operations $260.9M. FY2026 revenue guide RAISED to $115-125M from $105-115M. Cash + short-term investments $2.264B. The 8-K was accepted 4:03pm ET Wednesday Aug 5, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction session: +5.5% to $8.23, then +5.0% to $8.64 on Aug 7. Joby's net loss more than doubled sequentially to $245.4M and the stock went UP 5.5%. Both facts trace to one non-cash line: change in fair value of warrants, earnout shares and contingent consideration. That line was a $106.0M GAIN in Q1 and a $3.3M LOSS in Q2 - a $108.2M swing that is 80% of the sequential deterioration. Measured year over year the same line flatters instead: the net loss NARROWED $79.2M because it was a $126.3M loss a year ago. Strip it out and adjusted EBITDA loss went from $131.6M to $197.0M - 50% worse. Three findings the coverage missed: the raised $115-125M guide implies a second half of $57.1M at the midpoint, 9% BELOW the $62.9M first half already booked; Joby raised $1.29B in six months ($600M stock, $690M converts, a mortgage) and shares rose 8.4% to 986.5M with 14.2M warrants expiring Aug 10 and a $95.6M Blade earnout settling in shares by Aug 29; and Joby's own certification chart shows the FAA has verified just 10% of the fifth and final stage. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A REAL COMPANY AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY ASSUMES IT WORKS - EVEN OUR BULL CASE ONLY COMPOUNDS AT 10% A YEAR) — base-case value ~$6.0 vs ~$8.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $6.00 vs the $8.64 Aug 7 close (-30.6%). Bull $15.20, bear $2.25. We would look again under $5, with $1.58/share of net cash beneath it. - Q2: revenue $38.6M (bar $30.2M), EPS -$0.25 (bar -$0.234), net loss $245.4M, adj EBITDA loss $197.0M vs $131.6M. Cash $2.264B. FY guide raised to $115-125M. - Street: Hold, 8 analysts (2 buy / 4 hold / 2 sell). Dated Aug 6: Needham $15 (CUT from $18), H.C. Wainwright $18. Older: Morgan Stanley $13, Canaccord $11.50. What to watch: UP: revenue beat by 28% and FY2026 guidance was RAISED to $115-125M from $105-115M; Blade generated $36.2M with seats flown up over 50% and revenue up 32% in H1, and aircraft availability rather than demand is the constraint on many routes; $2.264B of cash and short-term investments against $702M of debt, so $1.56B of net cash ($1.58/share); five aircraft flying including the first FAA-conforming airframe with 12 more in production; a Toyota manufacturing joint venture formed in the quarter; first eIPP flights expected in September in Texas under a White-House-backed programme spanning 11 states; a partnership with Atoms and an exclusive UK airline deal with Virgin Atlantic. DOWN: adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $197.0M from $131.6M, 50% worse year over year and $19M worse than Q1; R&D rose 42.7% to $194.7M and SG&A 143% to $76.6M; the raised guide implies H2 revenue 9% BELOW H1 and no air-taxi revenue at all in 2026; H2 cash use is guided at $385-415M; long-term debt went from zero to $701.9M and the share count rose 8.4% in six months to 986.5M with the 2032 converts striking at $14.19; the FAA has verified only 10% of certification stage five; 94% of trailing revenue is helicopters, not air taxis. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.