Episode Details

Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Q1 FY2026 — Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net loss per share $(0.26) vs $(0.33), a 21% improvement. Revenue was $1.4M - not billion, million; nothing in the portfolio is approved anywhere. Cash and securities $3.9B against $385M of total liabilities and zero debt. But the company's own adjusted net loss was $243.7M vs $170.1M (43% WORSE) and cash used in operations was $270.5M vs $204.4M (32% worse). Total consolidated net loss WIDENED 6% to $290.6M. The 8-K was accepted by the SEC at 7:13am ET (before the open), so Aug 6 is the reaction session: +1.5% to $35.12, then +3.47% to $36.34 - up 5.03% over two sessions, 1% below the 12-month closing high. Roivant's headline improvement is ownership arithmetic, not operations. Total consolidated net loss got 6% BIGGER ($273.9M to $290.6M) - the reported improvement comes from the loss pushed onto Immunovant's minority holders DOUBLING, from $50.6M to $100.8M. Divide the $189.8M attributable loss by LAST year's 680.3M share count and you get $(0.28), not the printed $(0.26): 2 of the 7 cents of improvement is just a bigger denominator. Despite $208.7M of buybacks, shares outstanding still ROSE 5.9%, because $83M of quarterly share-based comp outran the repurchase. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, AN EXCEPTIONAL BALANCE SHEET AND A STRONG PIPELINE, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY ASSUMES ALL OF IT WORKS) — base-case value ~$20.0 vs ~$36.34 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $20.00 vs the $36.34 Aug 7 close (-45%). Bull $28, bear $12, buy under $17. Street: Buy, 15 analysts, 14 buy / 1 hold / 0 sell, avg target $38.33. - EPS $(0.26) vs $(0.33) (-21%), BUT adjusted net loss $243.7M +43% and cash burn $270.5M +32%. Total consolidated net loss $290.6M, +6%. - Observable value is $11.59/sh ($3.26B net liquid + 52% of Immunovant + marks). So $24.75/sh - 68% of the price - is unapproved pipeline. What to watch: UP: brepocitinib (oral JAK1/TYK2) is under FDA review in dermatomyositis with a decision guided to Q3 CY2026 and launch targeted by end-September; a positive Phase 3 in non-infectious uveitis in 2H; the cutaneous sarcoidosis Phase 3 (Phase 2 showed 77% of treated patients hitting the endpoint vs 0% on placebo, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, no approved therapy) reading out; Pulmovant's mosliciguat in pulmonary hypertension in 2H; Immunovant's anti-FcRn programme re-rating the 55% stake. Any of those lifts our risk-adjusted peak and the $28 bull case becomes the base. DOWN: quarterly burn goes through $350M while the buyback continues and the 16-quarter runway compresses; one readout misses and the Immunovant mark - itself at a 12-month high on a 38% float - goes with it. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.