Episode Details

Recording date: 6th August 2026

Olive Resource Capital posted a modest decline in July, with its portfolio down just over 1% for the month. Management characterizes the result as effectively flat, given the heightened volatility that defined the period and the fund's favorable performance relative to its internal peer benchmark.

Oil and copper led commodity markets higher during July. Oil rebounded on renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, while copper climbed to fresh yearly highs as Chinese warehouse inventories drew down faster than anticipated and production disruptions hit major Chilean mines. Together, these factors created a constructive supply-demand backdrop that management expects to persist in the near term.

Precious metals staged a late-month recovery, supported by a US dollar reversal tied to the Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting. Despite gains in gold and silver, precious metals equities broadly lagged, with some declining even as underlying metal prices rose. This divergence between commodity prices and related stocks has been a recurring theme through the first half of 2026.

Olive Resource Capital used the month's volatility strategically. Management deployed capital during risk-off periods and leveraged thinner summer liquidity to add positions in energy, uranium, copper, and gold. Notable additions included new buying in CANEX Metals following its consolidation with Gold Basin Resources, and continued accumulation in Prospector Metals, which has moved into the fund's top ten holdings.

Looking ahead, management is watching for early drill results from Prospector Metals in early September as a key near-term catalyst. The fund is also positioning for a seasonal pickup in news flow and financing activity through the autumn, consistent with its historical pattern of using the July-August window for accumulation ahead of stronger market conditions in the fall.

The Strait of Hormuz situation remains the dominant macro driver, though management notes the market appears to be growing less sensitive to individual headlines as investors conclude the current level of aggression is unsustainable for all parties involved.

Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com