Episode Details

TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 29, 2026): revenue $1,004.1M, +37.4% y/y - the first billion-dollar quarter in TTM's history, and $34M above the HIGH end of its own $930-970M guide. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.99 vs a ~$0.89 bar and its own $0.82-0.88 guide; GAAP diluted $0.77 after a $14.0M non-cash swap mark. Adjusted EBITDA $166.8M (16.6%). Book-to-bill 1.49. The stock ran to $149.91 intraday and closed at $136.36, +3.89% - a 9.0% fade from the high on ~3x normal volume. TTM Technologies printed the first billion-dollar quarter in its history - revenue $1,004.1M, up 37.4%, non-GAAP EPS $0.99 against a ~$0.89 bar, adjusted EBITDA margin 16.6%, and a total book-to-bill of 1.49 - and the stock still closed up only 3.89% at $136.36 after trading as high as $149.91. It gave back roughly two-thirds of a 14% pop in a single afternoon. We checked the basis before calling anything: the release prints BOTH bases, GAAP diluted $0.77 and non-GAAP diluted $0.99, and the half-year non-GAAP figure of $1.74 equals Q1's $0.75 plus Q2's $0.99 exactly, so the beat is like-for-like and real. The bar was not cut either - it was RAISED, and TTM cleared the top of its own revenue guide for the third quarter running. So what did the market object to? Arithmetic. TTM guided FY2026 to about $4.4B of revenue and non-GAAP EPS approaching $5.00. The first half was $1,850.0M and the Q3 guide midpoint is $1,120M, which leaves roughly $1,430M and about $2.02 for the fourth quarter - 32% of the year's revenue and 40% of its earnings, in one quarter, up 27.7% sequentially. That implies an incremental non-GAAP net margin of 27% on a company whose non-GAAP GROSS margin is 21.9%. Meanwhile first-half free cash flow was NEGATIVE $39.0M and capex is guided to $345-365M, about 8.1% of sales and 2.7x depreciation. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A GENUINELY GREAT QUARTER AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR A Q4 THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED) — base-case value ~$96.0 vs ~$136.355 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value ~$96 vs the $136.36 reaction close (-30%). Bull $163, bear $28. Street: 14 analysts, Buy, $209.33 avg - every target set May 28, before this print. - Revenue $1,004.1M +37.4% (first $1B quarter, above its own $930-970M guide). Non-GAAP EPS $0.99 vs ~$0.89 bar and an $0.82-0.88 guide. GAAP $0.77. Adj EBITDA $166.8M, 16.6%. Book-to-bill 1.49. - Data Center 40% of sales (+91% y/y). 90-day backlog $901M, +81%. H1 free cash flow -$39.0M; FY26 capex $345-365M. FY26 guide ~$4.4B and ~$5.00 implies a Q4 of ~$1.43B and ~$2.02. What to watch: UP: a Q3 non-GAAP gross margin above 23%; the fourth quarter actually landing near $1.43B; a hard number on 2027 M+N (Empress M) revenue; or accretive terms disclosed on the Swiss Technology Group and ILFA acquisitions closing in Q3. BEAR: the ~$4.4B full-year revenue guide being trimmed; book-to-bill falling back through 1.0; the 90-day backlog shrinking from $901M; or another year of capex above 8% of sales with free cash flow still near zero. Around $110 the risk/reward starts to interest us. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.