Episode Details

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $343.1M, +35.3% y/y vs a $325.3M bar. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.93 vs $1.69 (+14.2%); GAAP diluted EPS $1.21 (+75%). Non-GAAP operating margin 30.0%. The May guide was $320-330M / $1.65-1.73 - the print cleared the HIGH END of all four metrics. The 8-K was accepted 4:09 p.m. ET on Aug 6, so the $268.70 close is the LAST PRE-PRINT price, not the reaction. Onto Innovation printed record revenue of $343.1M (+35.3%), non-GAAP EPS of $1.93 against a $1.69 bar, a 30.0% non-GAAP operating margin, and a backlog above $1 billion for the first time ever. It then guided Q3 revenue to $380-400M against a $351.8M consensus and EPS to $2.18-2.38 against $1.93. This was an excellent quarter and we say so repeatedly. Our disagreement is entirely about price. We build an owner-earnings DCF with ONE cyclical down year in five - the observed history of this industry and of this company, whose revenue fell 14% in a single quarter twelve months ago and which earned a 5.2% operating margin two quarters ago. That model says $190. Probability-weighted with a no-down-year bull case at $271 and a 2028-rollover bear case at $120, fair value is about $208 against the $268.70 pre-print close. The bull case is essentially today's price. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN ELITE QUARTER AT A PRICE THAT ASSUMES THE CYCLE NEVER TURNS AGAIN) — base-case value ~$208.0 vs ~$268.7 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$208 vs the $268.70 pre-print close (-23%). Bull $271, base $190, bear $120. Street: 11 analysts, all Buy, $372 avg, low $315 - we are 34% below the lowest target. - Revenue $343.1M +35.3% (record) vs a $325.3M bar. Non-GAAP EPS $1.93 vs $1.69; GAAP EPS $1.21 +75%. Non-GAAP GM 57.0%, op margin 30.0%. Backlog above $1B, a company first. - The May guide was $320-330M / $1.65-1.73 - it cleared the HIGH END of all four. Q3 guided $380-400M vs $351.8M consensus, EPS $2.18-2.38 vs $1.93. - H1 operating cash flow $87.8M vs $149.9M a year ago, DOWN 41% on 22% MORE revenue. Inventory +27.2%, receivables +25.5%. $1.5B zero-coupon 2031 converts at a 0.39% effective rate; $710M committed to a 27% stake in Rigaku. What to watch: UP: inventory growing slower than revenue in the November print; cash conversion back above 80%; a Q4 guide above $430M; backlog growing again off the $1B base; recurring parts-and-service mix above 15%. DOWN: inventory outgrowing revenue a second straight quarter; the Rigaku stake marked down after it closes; customer concentration above 60%; any sequential revenue decline at all. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.