Episode Details

Fox Corporation (FOXA) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 revenue $4,212M UP 28% vs a $3,643M Street bar. Advertising $1,916M UP 78% on the FIFA Men's World Cup. Adjusted EBITDA $1,195M UP 27%. Adjusted EPS $1.79 vs $1.44. Full year: record revenue $17,126M and record adjusted EBITDA $3,906M. Stock +5.1% to $61.67 - still 19% below its January high. Fox closed fiscal 2026 with record revenue of $17.13B and record adjusted EBITDA of $3.91B, and a June quarter that grew 28% on the FIFA Men's World Cup. Adjusted EPS $1.79 against a $1.44 bar. Yet the stock sits 19% below January. The reason is not the quarter: on June 15 Fox announced it was buying Roku for $160 a share, and FOXA fell 16.8% in one session. Full-year GAAP EPS fell to $3.84 from $4.91 - but that is a $1.2B Flutter mark, not the business. Adjusted EPS rose to $5.42. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ENOUGH TO SURVIVE ITS OWN DEAL) — base-case value ~$70.0 vs ~$61.67 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY 3/5, fair value ~$70 vs the $61.67 tape (+13.5%). Street: 48 analysts, 24 Buy / 24 Hold / 0 Sell, $68 average - we ALIGN. Standalone $85, pro-forma $66, bear $52. - Q4 revenue $4,212M (+28%), adjusted EBITDA $1,195M (+27%), adjusted EPS $1.79 vs a $1.44 bar. FY26 revenue $17,126M and adjusted EBITDA $3,906M, both records. - EV $26,974M = 6.9x adjusted EBITDA; 11.4x adjusted EPS. Reverse-DCF implies -0.2% growth forever. Roku costs $14.2B cash plus 143.8M shares - 34% dilution. What to watch: UP: a Roku close with synergies raised above $400M, FY27 free cash flow recovering toward $2.5B as World Cup working capital unwinds, or a move on the FanDuel option. BEAR: cable distribution revenue that stops growing, the buyback pausing to fund the deal, or pro-forma leverage above 3.5x. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.