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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the lurch.

Through all this, crude prices are rising again, and US pump prices never dopped back during the recent fall in crude prices. That has bond markets worried that inflation may be about to turn up again, and yields rose somewhat today.

In the US, July job cut announcements were very low. In fact, US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in the month, the fewest in two years. But AI led all reasons for job cuts for a fifth straight month and was responsible for almost 11,000 during the month. The tech sector cut the most jobs, followed by the financial sector. Cut is government , and services were almost non-existent.

This data comes ahead of tomorrow's July non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show jobs growth a very low +80,000.

US jobless claims dipped last week but only by what seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.84 mln people on these benefits slightly lower than a year ago, and two years ago. Tough eligibility restrictions are restraining enrollment in conjunction with tougher restrictions on eligibility for SNAP (food stamps). More than 4 mln people have been cleared from these programs and much tougher restrictions are coming. The USDA has restricted access to data recording the numbers of people receiving this assistance.

While still elevated, the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eased low in July.

In Europe, retail sales sagged slightly in June, dipping -0.1% from May when a +0.1% rise was expected. That leaves them up +1.2% from a year ago on a real/volume basis.

Meanwhile, German factory orders rose +3.1% in June from May to be +6.5% higher than year ago levels, an accelerating pace from May. Apart from a few newsworthy bumps in between, in fact these order levels have been on an upswing since September 2025.

Strong export growth in June delivered Australia an unexpected trade surplus, of +AU$1.9 bln when a deficit of -AU$1.1 was expected after May's -AU$2.4 bln deficit. Their exports rose +8.6% from a year ago, boosted by an unusual rise in gold exports, up more than +25% from the same month a year ago.

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