Episode Details

DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) Q2 2026 — Marketplace GOV $33,078M UP 36%. Revenue $4,454M UP 36% vs a $4.35B bar. Adjusted EBITDA $914M UP 40% vs $842M - and $44M above the TOP of the company's own guide. But GAAP EPS $0.46 MISSED the ~$0.47 bar, net income fell 30% to $200M, and income from operations FELL 4% to $156M. DoorDash's adjusted EBITDA grew 40% to $914M. Its income from operations - the audited profit line - FELL from $163M to $156M. Revenue grew $1,170M and the operating line went backwards $7M. The entire difference is $758M of add-backs, and it reconciles to the dollar: stock comp and payroll tax $349M, D&A $295M, legal/tax/regulatory $98M, transaction $13M, restructuring $2M, lease impairment $1M. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A GREAT BUSINESS, AND NO MARGIN OF SAFETY) — base-case value ~$183.0 vs ~$207.27 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value ~$183 vs the $207.27 pre-print close (-11.7%) - BELOW the Street's $190 LOW target. The panel is 38 analysts: 29 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, $248.50 average (+19.9%). Base $183 (2026 owner earnings $1,050M growing 28% then 18%, 9.5% discount, 3.0% terminal); bull $383; bear $85. Run it backwards: tonight's price needs owner earnings to compound 25.0% a year for TEN straight years. Our base case already gives it 22.9%. Two points of compounding IS the entire gap. - ADJUSTED EBITDA UP 40%, OPERATING INCOME DOWN 4%. Adjusted EBITDA $914M vs $655M. Income from operations $156M vs $163M - on revenue that grew $1,170M. The $758M gap reconciles exactly: stock comp and payroll tax $349M (up 24%), D&A $295M (up 86%, with ~$450M of 2026 being acquired-intangible amortisation), legal/tax/regulatory $98M (up from $29M, ~$220M over four quarters, added back every quarter for years), transaction $13M, restructuring $2M, lease impairment $1M. R&D +52% to $535M, G&A +39% to $538M. - STRIP OUT DELIVEROO AND 36% BECOMES 24%. Revenue excluding Deliveroo was $4,071M vs $3,284M - up 24.0%, not 36%. Orders grew 17% ex-Deliveroo, not 27%. Marketplace GOV grew 23%, not 36%. Deliveroo contributed $383M of the $1,170M of new revenue. And the Q3 GOV guide of $33.0-34.0B is a $33.5B midpoint - only +1.28% sequentially against this quarter's $33,078M. Last year Q2 to Q3 grew +3.18%. Apply that seasonality and you get $34,130M, ABOVE the top of the guided range. Deliveroo does not anniversary until Q4. - THE BUYBACK IS LOSING TO THE SHARE COUNT. Year to date through August 5, DoorDash repurchased 6.8 million shares for $1,049M - an average of $154.26. Weighted-average diluted shares still went UP, 438,377k to 439,345k; basic rose 2.2%. Additional paid-in capital rose from $14,092M to $14,806M in six months. 2026 stock comp is guided at $1.2-1.3B. And FCF has a pre-announced hole: $742M in the quarter (+109%), but management says year-end merchant-payment timing will cut reported 2026 Free Cash Flow by $700-800M. - GIVE THE QUARTER ITS DUE, THEN VALUE IT. The $914M beat the company's OWN May guide of $770-870M by $44M at the top - this is NOT a beat against a cut bar - and the Q3 EBITDA guide midpoint of $1,025M beat the ~$978M modelled. Contribution profit $1,641M, 5.0% of GOV vs 4.4% last quarter. Take rate held at 13.5%. But: EV $86.3B is 5.4x TTM revenue of $15,891M, 27.0x TTM adjusted EBITDA of $3,202M, 47.7x on the GAAP measure screens use for Uber (17.1x) and Airbnb (28.7x), 108x TTM GAAP EPS of $1.91, and 87.6x owner earnings of $1,025M - TTM FCF of $2,139M less $1,114M of stock comp. What to watch: UP: income from operations back above $300M in a quarter, a Q3 that beats the $34.0B top of the GOV guide, or stock compensation guided flat for 2027. BEAR: contribution profit back below 4.7% of GOV, Q4 guided under $36B, or another quarter of diluted shares rising through a billion-dollar buyback. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.