Episode Details

Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) Q2 2026 — Revenue $1,085.6M UP 126%, adjusted EBITDA $478.3M UP 124%, free cash flow $387.5M UP 165% - all company records. Adjusted EPS $0.12 against $0.16 a year ago: DOWN 25%. The share count rose 61% and a $140M non-cash charge took $0.10. Coeur posted record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA and record free cash flow - and adjusted earnings per share FELL 25%, from $0.16 to $0.12. The 'updated' 2026 guidance is a cut: gold output down 7.7% at the midpoint, Rainy River costs up 27%, capex up 17%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A RECORD QUARTER, A CUT GUIDE, AND ONLY TWELVE PERCENT OF UPSIDE) — base-case value ~$19.5 vs ~$17.43 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$19.50 vs the $17.43 close (+12%), far below the Street's $27.42 average (+57%). We hold the exit multiple at 7.5x EBITDA and run three metal-price decks on 800,000 oz of gold, 20.5Moz of silver and 65Mlb of copper: bear $3,400 gold / $45 silver = $13.21 a share, base $4,000 / $60 (Coeur's OWN updated deck) = $20.14, bull $4,600 / $80 = $26.68. Free-cash-flow-yield cross-check: $18.20. - REVERSE-DCF: WHAT METAL PRICE $17.43 ALREADY ASSUMES. At a 7.5x exit multiple the close embeds roughly $3,650 gold and $55 silver - BELOW what Coeur itself now assumes, which is why this is not a sell. Our ~$19.50 embeds about $3,920 and $59. The Street's $27.42 needs about $4,940 gold and $74 silver, a deck the company just walked away from: it cut its own assumption from $4,550/$77.50 to $4,000/$60.00. - THE RECORD WENT BACKWARDS PER SHARE. Revenue $1,085.6M (+126%), adjusted EBITDA $478.3M (+124%), operating cash flow $513.2M, free cash flow $387.5M (+165%, 35.7% of revenue) and record gold production of 163,490 oz. Yet adjusted EPS was $0.12 against $0.16 a year ago. Weighted shares went from 643.1M to 1,034.4M (+60.9%) to pay for New Gold in stock, and a $140M non-cash purchase-price charge on Rainy River stockpiles took $0.10 a share. GAAP EPS $0.12 vs a compiled bar near $0.26, revenue ~$153M light. - THE 'UPDATED' GUIDANCE IS A CUT. 2026 gold production 680-815k oz cut to 630-750k (midpoint -7.7%); copper 50-65Mlb cut to 40-50Mlb (-21.7%). Rainy River cost per gold ounce raised from $2,150-2,350 to $2,700-3,000 (+27%); New Afton gold cost +32% and copper cost +69%. Capex $437-526M raised to $520-605M. All five legacy mines - Las Chispas, Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, Wharf - were reaffirmed unchanged. And 430,053 of the 690,000 guided gold ounces, 62% of the year, still sit in the second half. - THE BULL CASE IS THE BALANCE SHEET, AND THE HIDDEN TAX IS THE STREAM. Cash $1,052.3M against total debt $705.3M is NET CASH of $347.0M, from $269.1M of net DEBT a year ago - a $616M swing; leverage is negative 0.2x and year-end cash is guided near $2.0B. Coeur has bought back $121M of stock (6.7M shares) and paid a first dividend. Adjusted cost per gold ounce was $2,442 including $834 of non-cash accounting, so ~$1,608 underlying against $4,140 realised. But 10,084 oz - 51% of Palmarejo's gold sales - went to Franco-Nevada at $800/oz while the market paid ~$4,400. What to watch: UP: September-quarter gold production above 200,000 oz, Rainy River's underground confirmed at 5,000 tonnes a day, or year-end cash tracking above $1.9B. BEAR: a third guidance revision at the Canadian mines, September gold below 190,000 oz, or capex guidance above the $605M top end. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.