Episode Details

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all.

Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math.

This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network.

⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true

INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

🔴 Don't Use AI For Sports Betting Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/ykICNBiFubg

🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/

SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/

FOLLOW

🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola

OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong

1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability

3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version

11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks

14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX

16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread

19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency

23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets

29:10 - Which Props This Applies To

30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line

33:01 - The Honest Caveat

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #PlayerProps #NFLProps #PropBetting #BettingEducation #SharpBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NFLBetting

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices