Episode Details

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Q2 2026 — Gross bookings $58.0B, +24% (+22% cc). Revenue $14.19B, +12% - but Uber's own release says business model changes cost 8 points of that growth. Adjusted EBITDA $2,819M, +33%, 4.9% of bookings vs 4.5%. GAAP EPS $1.17 includes a $1.6B equity revaluation; non-GAAP EPS $0.81. Last close $71.99. Every headline read Uber's 24% bookings growth against 12% revenue growth as a collapsing take rate. Uber's own release says business model changes cut reported revenue growth by 8 percentage points. Put them back and revenue grew about 20%. THE CALL: BUY (4/5, THE HEADLINE NUMBERS ARE WRONG AND THE BUSINESS IS NOT) — base-case value ~$90.0 vs ~$71.99 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY 4/5, fair value ~$90 vs the $71.99 close (+25%). Owner earnings: Q2 free cash flow $2,792M less $550M stock comp less the $387M insurance reserve build = $1,855M, annualised $7.42B, or $3.62 per diluted share - so the market pays 19.9x. Base DCF: $7.42B compounding at 16% fading to 4%, terminal 3%, discounted at 10% = $182.4B enterprise value, plus $2.9B net cash = $185.3B over 2,050.2M shares = $90. Bear $60, bull $131. - THE ANGLE: Uber disclosed that business model changes cut reported revenue growth by 8 percentage points. Proof from the segment tables: Mobility revenue grew 1% on bookings up 22%, so the Mobility take rate fell from 30.7% to 25.4% - but Mobility segment Adjusted EBITDA still grew 28% to $2,215M and its margin on bookings ROSE from 7.28% to 7.64%. Real take-rate erosion cannot raise segment margin. The revenue line moved; the economics did not. - TWO WRONG HEADLINES: GAAP diluted EPS $1.17 (+85%) includes a $1.6B pre-tax net benefit from revaluing Uber's equity investments, against a $17M headwind a year ago - a ~$1.6B swing on a company whose entire GAAP operating income was $1,890M. Non-GAAP EPS $0.81 vs an $0.81-$0.83 consensus reads as a small miss but strips out stock comp. The honest numbers: GAAP income from operations +30%, Adjusted EBITDA +33%. - THE FLOAT: trailing twelve-month free cash flow topped $10B for the first time, but quarterly FCF grew just 13% ($2,475M to $2,792M) while Adjusted EBITDA grew 33%. The gap is the insurance reserve build, which fell from $812M to $387M year on year ($1,487M to $830M over six months). Uber carries $13.3B of insurance reserves - genuine float, and a genuine liability. We strip it out of owner earnings entirely. - QUALITY + SCALE: gross bookings $58,022M, trips 3,867M (+18%), MAPCs 208M (+16%). Delivery Adjusted EBITDA +38% to $1,055M on bookings +26% - now the fastest-growing profit pool, with Delivery bookings ($27,463M) within 6% of Mobility ($28,988M). Diluted shares fell 3.5% (2,125.6M to 2,050.2M) despite $550M/qtr of stock comp. Capex was $70M on $58B of bookings. Q3 guide: bookings $58.25-60.25B, Adj EBITDA $2.86-2.96B, non-GAAP EPS $0.84-0.88 - below consensus, which is why the stock has de-rated 28% from its October high. What to watch: Changes our mind UP: a second straight quarter of Delivery segment margin expansion, or disclosure quantifying how much revenue the business model changes moved. Confirms the bear: two quarters of Mobility segment Adjusted EBITDA margin ON BOOKINGS falling (not the revenue line, which is noise), or an insurance reserve build that turns negative. We'd buy $66-$72 and trim at $90. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.