Episode Details

Does running the ball actually set up the pass in football, or is it one of sports' most persistent myths? We dig into decades of data showing that "establishing the run" has zero correlation with winning—yet play-action, the fake version, remains devastatingly effective. Then we explore this deception paradox across volleyball, basketball, and beyond: why every sport relies on keeping opponents guessing between two opposite moves, and the game theory behind why you need to threaten the thing you're not doing. 00:00 - The Establish the Run Myth 03:45 - Aaron Schatz and Football Outsiders 06:20 - Play-Action Magic: Why the Fake Works Better 09:15 - Beach Volleyball Hitting vs Shots 11:30 - The Feint Principle Across Sports 14:00 - Game Theory: Threat as Setup --- Sources & further reading: • Ignacio Palacios-Huerta — "Professionals Play Minimax": https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/70/2/395/1586790 • Football Outsiders — "Rushing Success and Play-Action Passing": https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing • PMC — "Performance Streaks in Elite Beach Volleyball" (965 FIVB matches, 28,974 sideouts): https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6534039/ • Josh Hermsmeyer / FiveThirtyEight — "You Called A Run On First Down. You're Already Screwed.": https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youres-already-screwed • Josh Hermsmeyer / FiveThirtyEight — "For A Passing League, The NFL Still Doesn't Pass Enough": https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/ • Brian Burke / Advanced NFL Stats — "Game Theory and Run/Pass Balance": http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/06/game-theory-and-runpass-balance.html • Ben Baldwin / Open Source Football — "Visualizing the Run/Pass Efficiency Gap": https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-08-19-visualizing-the-runpass-efficiency-gap/ • Aaron Schatz / Football Outsiders — FO Basics: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics • Football Outsiders — "Further Research on Play-Action Passing": https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing • Football Outsiders — "Play-Action Passing and Game Conditions": https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/play-action-passing-and-game-conditions • PFF — "Signature Stats: Play Action & Deep Passing": https://www.pff.com/news/signature-stats-play-action-deep-passing • Kevin Pelton / ESPN — "Explaining 'gravity' in basketball": https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/11744634/explaining-gravity-basketball • Kirk Goldsberry — Sprawlball: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA — (book, 2019) • NBA.com — "Player Gravity Leaders": https://www.nba.com/inside-the-game/player/gravity • Chiappori, Levitt, Groseclose — "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria" (American Economic Review, 2002): https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2F00028280260344678 • Walker and Wooders — "Minimax Play at Wimbledon" (American Economic Review, 2001) • Prospects Live — "The Mystic Art of Pitch Tunneling": https://prospectslive.com/the-mystic-art-of-pitch-tunneling/ • Baseball Prospectus — "Tunnels and Sequencing": https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/32790/prospectus-feature-tunnels-and-sequencing-applications-on-the-field/ • ATS Stats — "The Art of the Setup: Pitch Sequencing": https://www.atsstats.com/the-art-of-the-setup-how-pitchers-sequence-their-arsenal-to-fool-batters/ • Mark Burik / BetterAtBeach — "How to Hit Better (Shots Part 1)": https://www.betteratbeach.com/blog/how-to-hit-better-in-beach-volleyball-10x-your-attacking-with-these-tips-for-hitting-shots-part-1-of-3 • BetterAtBeach — "Blocking Calls 101": https://www.betteratbeach.com/blog/beachvolleyballblockingcalls101 • AVP — "Shots in Beach Volleyball 101": https://avp.com/news/shots-in-beach-volleyball-101/ • …and 4 more in the episode research notes This podcast episode was fully generated by AI — research, script, voices, and produc