Episode Details

With Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel
Ingo Hofmaier, CFO of LIfezone Metals

Recording date: 30th July 2026

Indonesia has fundamentally shifted its nickel strategy—from flooding global markets to actively managing supply through royalties, quotas, and pricing formulas since late 2025. Executives from Canada Nickel and Lifezone Metals describe this as a structural change, not a temporary adjustment. They argue that the era of nickel priced under $15,000 per tonne is over, with $18,000–$19,000 now representing Indonesia’s break-even and preferred operating range.

Physical supply constraints are compounding policy-driven discipline. Indonesian ore grades fell about 8% last year and are expected to drop another 4–5% this year. Meanwhile, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production has slumped roughly 37% from its September 2025 peak, largely due to sulphur import bottlenecks tied to geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

On the demand side, the market continues to overemphasize electric vehicle batteries while underestimating stainless steel, which accounts for the bulk of nickel consumption and is growing steadily at 4.6–4.8% annually. Both executives contend that consensus forecasts around 3% annual demand growth lag real trends, which have averaged nearly 7% since 2019.

Canada Nickel’s Crawford project in Ontario recently secured a federal Decision Statement, clearing its final major regulatory hurdle. The company now focuses on closing the last 10–20% of its financing package, with a construction decision targeted for 2027. Strategic investors include Anglo American, Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, and the Taykwa Tagamou Nation.

Lifezone Metals is advancing its high-grade Kabanga project in Tanzania, where nickel grades exceed 2%, supported by copper, cobalt, and silver byproducts. With over $800 million of its $930 million capex already tendered and $37 million in cash on hand, Lifezone seeks to finalize equity financing ahead of a Final Investment Decision. Construction could begin within two to three years thereafter.

Together, these developments signal a tighter, more disciplined nickel market—one where Western sulphide projects may finally find viable economic footing.

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