Episode Details

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Q2 2026 — Revenue $36.7M (+13%) and gross margin 32.8% vs 25.0% (+781bps). Net loss shrank 89% to $25.7M — but $135.3M of that was a smaller non-cash derivative swing and $70.6M was last year's absent goodwill impairment. Adjusted EBITDA got WORSE: −$11.6M vs −$8.5M. Operating cash burn quadrupled to $40.2M for H1. FY26 revenue guidance affirmed at $135–165M. The stock printed a 52-week low of $2.59 the day BEFORE the print, then rose 9.8% to $2.845. The number nobody put on a slide: revenue per share. In 2021 BigBear.ai produced $145.6M of revenue across 107.0M shares — $1.36 per share. In 2026 it guides to ~$150M across 479.5M shares — about $0.31. Revenue grew 3% in five years; the share count grew 348%. Every repair to this balance sheet was paid for in ownership: $300M from the 2025 at-the-market, $65M from warrant exercises, and in January the entire $125M of 6.00% convertible notes due 2029 converted at 305.5254 shares per $1,000 — roughly 38M new shares in one transaction. Shares outstanding went 437.0M to 479.5M in six months alone, with no ATM at all. Meanwhile gross margin of 32.8%, in the best quarter of the company's listed life, is still less than half of what real enterprise software earns — and the market is paying about 7x FY26E revenue for it. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE COMPANY IS IMPROVING. YOUR SHARE OF IT IS NOT.) — base-case value ~$1.4 vs ~$2.845 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $36.749M +13% (vs $32.472M); H1 $71.184M vs $67.229M (+5.9%) - Gross margin 32.8% vs 25.0% — +781bps, driven by the Ask Sage GenAI mix - Adjusted EBITDA −$11.572M vs −$8.498M — WORSE by 36% on higher revenue - Net loss −$25.749M vs −$228.619M, but $135.3M was a non-cash derivative swing and $70.6M last year's goodwill impairment - Operating cash flow −$22.207M in Q2 (vs −$3.868M); H1 −$40.208M vs −$10.532M - SG&A $31.848M +48%, R&D $7.562M +72% — opex $40.6M now exceeds quarterly revenue - Shares outstanding 479,494,493 vs 436,955,655 at Dec 31 — +9.7% in six months, no ATM - Weighted shares 479.1M vs 320.6M a year ago (+49.5%); basic = diluted (antidilutive) - Revenue per share: $1.36 (2021) to ~$0.31 (2026E) = −77%, on +3% revenue and +348% shares - $125M of 6.00% 2029 converts fully converted Jan 2026 at 305.5254 sh/$1,000 (~38M shares) - Cash & investments $409.8M ($36.3M cash + $282.9M current + $90.6M non-current AFS); LT debt $0 - Backlog $269.6M, +9% since December = ~1.8x guided revenue; funded/unfunded split NOT disclosed - Accumulated deficit $948.1M vs paid-in capital $1.719B; equity $770.3M incl. $369.4M goodwill+intangibles - FY2026 guidance AFFIRMED (not raised) at $135–165M revenue; NO adjusted EBITDA guidance given - EV ~$1.04B = ~7x FY26E revenue for a 32.8% gross margin; net cash is $0.85/share of the $2.845 price What to watch: Watch adjusted EBITDA, not revenue. It was −$11.6M this quarter vs −$8.5M a year ago. If the September and December quarters show that loss NARROWING year on year while gross margin holds above 32%, the operating leverage is real and fair value moves toward $2.00. What breaks it further: a large acquisition paid for in stock, a restart of the ATM at these prices, or gross margin slipping back below 30%. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.