Episode Details

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 net sales were $21.203B (+2%, a miss vs ~$21.38B); core EPS of $1.43 matched consensus but fell 3%, and currency-neutral core EPS fell 5%. Organic sales growth was 0% — volume 0%, pricing 0%, mix 0% — so all the reported growth was currency and rounding. GAAP EPS fell 15% to $1.26; core operating margin fell 130bps even with 460bps of gross productivity savings, because 410bps went back out as marketing reinvestment. Full year: net sales $87.0B (+3%), organic +1% with 100% of it pricing and volume flat, core EPS $6.89 (+1%), currency-neutral core EPS growth 0%. FY2027 guidance: organic +1-3%, core EPS 0-3% (midpoint $7.00), a ~$1B after-tax commodity headwind, and Q1 guided to -5% or more. P&G is the stock people own so they can stop worrying — but for the full year organic sales grew 1% and every point of it was price, with volume flat: in unit terms P&G sold exactly as much as the year before. Its own slide shows organic growth decelerating 7% to 4% to 2% to 1% across FY2023-FY2026, and currency-neutral core EPS growth going 16% to 4% to 0%. Share is going with it — P&G held or grew value share in only 26 of its top 50 category-country combinations, the weakest in the decade it publishes. FY2026 dividends plus buybacks were $15.26B against $15.15B of free cash flow, or 101%, and FY2027 commits ~$15B against roughly $14B of guided cash. Our owner-earnings DCF at a 7.0% required return lands at $134 vs $143.55, and the reverse DCF says the price requires ~3.8% annual growth from a business delivering 1%. Our call: AVOID, 2/5 — a price problem, not a quality problem. Wall Street is still Buy at a ~$158.56 average target, so we DIFFER. THE CALL: AVOID (2/5, A 1% COMPOUNDER PRICED FOR A 4% ALGORITHM — GREAT COMPANY, WRONG PRICE) — base-case value ~$134.00 vs ~$143.55 today. What to watch: organic VOLUME turning positive and staying positive — two consecutive quarters of real unit growth with core operating margin expanding would rebuild the algorithm case, and a recovery in the top-50 share count from 26 toward the low thirties would confirm it; the risk is the opposite — a fourth year below algorithm, further share loss, commodity costs past the guided $1B, or a buyback cut Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.