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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting.

Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%.

The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said.

There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis.

In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see.

Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024.

Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May.

China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, b