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Back to EpisodesEarly Models Suggest RECORD US National Avg Corn Yield
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π± Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. π¨π³ Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.
π½ Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. π¦ USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.
πΎ Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. β Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.
π US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. π€οΈ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.
β½ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. π’οΈ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
π’ Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. π¨π³ China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.
π¨π¦ The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cementβeven USMCA-exempt goods. π€ Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.