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Early Models Suggest RECORD US National Avg Corn Yield

Published 1Β month ago
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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links β€”

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.

🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. πŸ“¦ USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.

🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. βš“ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.

πŸ“Š US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌀️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.

β›½ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. πŸ›’οΈ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

🚒 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cementβ€”even USMCA-exempt goods. 🀝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.

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