Episode Details

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) Q4 FY2026 — Aehr Test Systems beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $18.8M, +34%; non-GAAP EPS $0.11 vs a small expected loss), posted record bookings of $60.7M and a $100.6M effective backlog, and guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $130-150M — 160-200% growth. The stock rose ~6% to $72. Going into the print, Aehr was the classic story stock: 52x sales, falling revenue, and no FY27 number. The print knocked down all three pillars of the bear case at once — it guided $130-150M (160-200% growth), Q4 gross margin recovered to 43%, and it fired the dilution gun (raised $97M, now $116M cash and no debt). So it's no longer a business-quality call, it's a valuation call: ~16x forward sales but ~84x forward earnings after a 5x run. Notably, the Street's $62 targets are stale (set pre-guide) and almost certainly headed up. A constructive HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE STORY GOT REAL; SO DID THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$72 vs ~$72 today. What to watch: the gross margin holding as Sonoma scales, fiscal 2028 bookings (the encore customer), and the analyst upgrades likely coming after this guide Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.