Episode Details

Dutch intelligence agencies missed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—until the very last minute—thanks to overreliance on a single trusted source inside Russia, who downplayed the threat. Despite U.S. warnings since late 2021 and even sharing assessments with Biden, the Dutch held back, believing the buildup was just a bluff. That hesitation may have weakened Europe’s unified response and delayed crucial support to Ukraine. It wasn’t until blood plasma shipments to the front lines that they seriously considered invasion possible. The source, though reliable for years, had no insight into Putin’s actual attack plans—and Dutch agencies may have also doubted U.S. intel, haunted by past failures like Iraq. A sobering reminder: assumptions can cost lives when dealing with global threats.

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