Episode Details

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem, Chief Investment Officer of Trion Properties, shares a live panel conversation from IMN’s Real Estate Private Funds Summer event in Newport, Rhode Island.

The panel, titled “Global Economic Headwinds: Industry Leaders Dissect Macro Trends Reshaping CRE Valuations,” brought together leaders across real estate investment management, hospitality, multifamily operations, and fund structuring to discuss how capital is being underwritten and deployed in a market where returns can no longer rely on falling rates or cap rate compression.

The conversation features Emi Adachi, Managing Director and Global Head of Investment Research at Heitman, Douglas J. Elsbeck, Partner at King & Spalding, Uma Moriarity, Senior Investment Strategist and Global Head of Sustainability at CenterSquare Investment Management, and Stephany Chen, Head of Investor Relations at Trinity Investments.

Together, the panel breaks down how today’s higher-for-longer interest rate environment is reshaping underwriting, capital deployment, and investor expectations across real estate sectors. Uma explains why the valuation disconnect between public REIT markets, private appraisals, and transaction pricing continues to create friction in capital flows. With cap rate compression no longer driving returns, investors are being forced to focus on asset-level execution, durable cash flow, and hands-on management.

David brings the multifamily operator perspective, highlighting how inflation, shelter cost data, and renter stress are showing up differently on the ground than in headline numbers. He discusses the shift from cap stack distress to operational distress, with owners now paying closer attention to bad debt, delinquency, rent roll deterioration, deferred maintenance, and true day-one yield. In this environment, he argues that operators must go back to the basics: positive leverage, realistic rent assumptions, and disciplined underwriting.

Stephany offers the hospitality perspective, explaining why hotels can act as an inflation hedge through daily rate adjustments, while also emphasizing the importance of yield management, labor costs, diversified demand drivers, and local operating expertise. She also discusses how international and domestic investors are approaching U.S. hospitality differently in today’s geopolitical and capital markets environment.

The panel also covers how institutional investors are changing the way they access real estate. Uma and Doug discuss the move away from traditional commingled funds toward joint ventures, separate accounts, sidecars, club deals, and other structures that give investors more agency over capital deployment. The discussion closes with a look at regulation, rent stabilization, political risk, and why operators with vertically integrated platforms may be best positioned to navigate the next phase of the cycle.

Overall, this episode explores a central theme for today’s market: when falling rates and cap rate compression are no longer available to bail out a deal, returns have to be earned through disciplined underwriting, operational execution, and a clear understanding of risk.

www.dealflowfriday.com
IG: @dealflowfriday
X: @dealflowfriday