Episode Details

National Beverage (FIZZ) FY2026 — Shares popped double digits after National Beverage declared a $3.25/share special dividend — roughly 10% of the stock — even as case volumes fell 6.7%. The maker of LaCroix is one of the most under-covered stocks on the market: founder Nick Caporella owns ~73%, management holds no earnings calls, and almost no Wall Street analyst follows it. Sales were flat, volumes fell, and yet a fat special dividend sent shares flying. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE) — base-case value ~$32 vs ~$32 today. KEY METRICS: - Net sales: $1.18B (~flat YoY); EPS $1.96 (vs $2.00); net income ~$184M - Special dividend: $3.25/share — roughly 10% of the share price - Case volume −6.7%, offset by +5.2% price per case → ~flat revenue - Gross margin ~37%; operating margin ~20% — elite for a beverage company - Free cash flow ~$156M; cash ~$350M (+$156M YoY); essentially debt-free - Net cash ~$290M — roughly 10% of the ~$3.0B market cap - Founder Nick Caporella controls ~73%; no earnings calls, minimal analyst coverage - Stock ~$32.48, near its 52-week low ($30.75–$47.85); P/E ~16.6x What to watch: case-volume trends, functional-soda competition (Poppi/Olipop), and the next special dividend Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.