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Soybeans RALLY on China Buying and "Non-Stop" Corn Belt Heat

Published 1Β month, 2Β weeks ago
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. πŸ“Š Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.

🀝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. πŸ›οΈ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.

πŸ“ˆ Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️πŸ”₯ The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.

πŸ’° Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. πŸ“… It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.

🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace. 

🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.

πŸ”₯ Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌑️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.

🚒 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. πŸ“‰ Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

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